Sunday at the legendary Spa-Francorchamps circuit began under heavy rainfall, casting uncertainty over the Belgian Grand Prix. According to the most recent weather forecasts, the wet weather system is expected to persist over the Ardennes region throughout the day. Although there may be occasional pauses or moments when the rain lightens, the likelihood of the race being contested in wet conditions remains quite high. The formation lap is scheduled to take place at 15:00 local time in Italy.
Should the drivers be forced to use wet-weather tyres, teams will need to carefully assess in real-time whether to opt for the Intermediate tyres or the Full Wet compound, based on evolving track conditions. However, for the purpose of this analysis, and for obvious reasons, the following strategic breakdown will only focus on the hypothetical scenario in which the track remains dry during the race and thus dry-weather slick tyres will be used.
Pirelli’s Strategic Recommendations – Spa-Francorchamps Circuit – 44 Laps
Before diving into possible scenarios, it is important to take note of the strategic guidelines issued by the official tyre supplier, Pirelli, to all Formula 1 teams ahead of today’s race. Pirelli stated: “Assuming the Grand Prix takes place in dry conditions, and the asphalt temperatures are significantly cooler than those observed on Friday and Saturday, the Soft C4 and Medium C3 tyre compounds will offer the best overall performance. Given that the performance gap between a one-stop strategy and a two-stop approach is not particularly large, all combinations of Soft and Medium tyres are viable.”
Mario Isola, Pirelli’s Head of Motorsport, also clarified: “This doesn’t mean that bringing a very hard tyre such as the C1 compound was a mistake. Had we kept the same trio of compounds as in 2024 (C2, C3, and C4), the one-stop strategy using Medium and Hard tyres would have been clearly the fastest option.” He further elaborated that if the race were to start in dry conditions but with rain looming later on, the Medium tyre could be the most sensible initial choice. That would give drivers and teams greater flexibility in timing the switch to wet tyres if and when rain starts to fall. This would also allow for a longer first stint.
Rain Could Undermine Pirelli’s Strategic Thinking
Unfortunately, based on current weather conditions, it seems increasingly unlikely that the race will be held entirely in dry conditions. Nevertheless, in the unlikely event that the rain holds off, the Hard C1 compound might still play a strategic role in the Grand Prix and should not be ruled out from the list of viable tyre choices.
The 2025 Belgian Grand Prix consists of 44 laps. Already during Saturday’s Sprint event, some teams experienced noticeable tyre degradation when running the Medium C3 compound, making it difficult to complete long stints. McLaren and Red Bull Racing, for instance, appeared to manage their tyre wear quite well and might have been able to extend their stint by an additional 5 to 6 laps. This performance could allow them to consider a race strategy involving two Medium stints and a final stint on Softs (M-M-S). However, Scuderia Ferrari, specifically with driver Charles Leclerc, encountered difficulties as early as lap 12 or 13, with lap times increasing by about one second compared to his average pace. Given that, a more realistic and reliable strategy for Charles Leclerc could be a Medium-Hard-Medium (M-H-M) approach.
The Soft C4 compound is particularly delicate and requires careful management, especially when used for more than ten laps. Last year, the longest stint on C4 tyres was recorded by Daniel Ricciardo, who managed only eight laps. In fact, Ricciardo was the only driver to use this compound in the race, while Sergio Pérez mounted a set for just two laps near the end to secure the fastest lap.
Based on current data and past performance, there is reason to believe that little has changed this year. All teams have preserved at least two sets of the Medium C3 compound for the race. Some have two brand-new sets, others one new and one used, while a few have two used sets — but in all cases, they have sufficient Medium tyres available. Most drivers also have one set of Hard tyres left. Unless a team is in a particularly advantageous position like Red Bull Racing or McLaren, the safest and most conservative strategy appears to be M-H-M. Meanwhile, Max Verstappen and the McLaren drivers might gamble with a strategy involving the Soft compound. This would mean longer stints on the Medium tyre, but considering their strong pace in the Sprint (recorded with asphalt temperatures around 40°C), this should not be a major concern for them.
It’s worth noting that Pirelli’s recommendations also take into account the cooler track temperatures caused by the ongoing rain, which is significantly reducing the surface temperature compared to Friday and Saturday. This drop in temperature could actually work in favour of both the Soft and Medium compounds, potentially enhancing their durability and overall performance. As a result, more teams might lean toward adopting a strategy centred around two Medium stints and one Soft (M-M-S).
Pirelli’s bold choice to vary the compound selection for this Grand Prix — skipping a compound between the Soft and Hard — has opened up a wide range of potential strategic options. Making this move at such a demanding and iconic circuit like Spa-Francorchamps was a well-calculated and forward-thinking decision. It was clearly intended to encourage strategic variety and promote more exciting racing. It would be a real shame if persistent rain ended up undermining what could have been an engaging race from a strategic standpoint.
Overtaking is notoriously difficult at Spa-Francorchamps, as already demonstrated in the Sprint race, where tyre degradation was similar across the field and drivers struggled to gain positions. Today, however, pit stops and tyre strategy could become major factors. The advantage of having a fresher set of tyres at key moments of the race might provide the performance differential needed to execute overtaking manoeuvres. That potential performance delta from new rubber could play a crucial role in reshuffling the order and adding excitement to the Belgian Grand Prix.
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