Charles Leclerc will take part in the Azerbaijan GP, for the fourth consecutive year, from pole position. Over the years, the Monegasque driver has always made a big difference in qualifying with his Ferrari but has never managed to convert the result into victory on Sunday. In previous years, the car lacked an aerodynamically efficient package, making Charles Leclerc an easy target on Baku’s long straights.
This year, the situation has slightly improved from that perspective. This is also demonstrated by Charles’ victory at Monza two weeks ago. However, in that instance, the SF-24 had a very low downforce aerodynamic package, which for obvious reasons cannot be used at Baku.
Pirelli’s advice – Baku City Circuit – 51 laps
Before trying to understand how Ferrari will defend the pole position today, let’s take note of the strategic advice Pirelli gave to the teams after qualifying: “A one-stop strategy is clearly the fastest option on paper. Medium and Hard compounds are the most suitable to complete the 51 laps,” said Mario Isola to the Pirelli press.
“A possible two-stop strategy would only become plausible if a Safety Car were deployed in the second half of the race. This is probably why many drivers have saved two sets of Hard C3 tires. The first stop should occur between lap 13 and lap 20 for those starting on Mediums, and between lap 32 and lap 38 for those starting on Hards. The appearance of a Safety Car could trigger a frenzy of pit stops. Additionally, graining will be a factor to consider since the track is still quite dirty,” concluded Pirelli’s motorsport director.
An almost obligatory choice for Charles Leclerc, graining will be the first rival to beat
This year, the Baku track is dirtier compared to previous editions. Unlike in past years, the asphalt (normally used for city traffic) wasn’t cleaned before Formula 1 arrived. This not only caused some headaches for the engineers, as the event preparation was done using completely different data in their complex simulation systems, but it also led to a significant increase in lap times. Leclerc’s pole lap was 1.1 seconds slower compared to last year.
The biggest problem, however, as Mario Isola reminded us last night, could be the graining during the race. This will be the first rival to beat. For this reason, the Soft C5 compound is almost entirely excluded from strategies, with the Medium C4 and Hard C3 expected to be the main choices (Pirelli selected the softest compounds for this event).
It’s not ruled out that the irritating graining phenomenon could also affect the Mediums, especially for those who choose to use them in the first stint. Surely, those opting for a Hard-Medium strategy could better exploit the C4 compound at the end of the race, benefiting from a much more rubbered-in and faster track.
However, the Hard tires, tested by Mercedes on Friday, did not perform badly. Many drivers decided to preserve two sets for the race. Therefore, it wouldn’t be surprising if some drivers at the back decided to start on Mediums and then switch to Hards at the first opportunity (possibly taking advantage of an early Safety Car) and then mount the white C3s in the second part of the race.
Charles Leclerc, like McLaren and Red Bull, has also managed to save two sets of Hards. In his case, however, since he will have to defend pole position, the Monegasque will be almost forced into an M-H strategy (or H-M if he wants to take some risks). For Charles, it will be crucial to be in the lead at the end of the first lap to run in clean air and manage the tires correctly.
It is difficult to determine his chances of victory since we don’t have data on race pace. On Friday, Piastri and Perez were the most consistent on Medium tires, and Carlos Sainz seemed to have good speed. Mercedes was very competitive on Hard tires, but since they start so far back, it will be challenging for them to aim for the win. Still, this scenario is possible due to the minimal differences in performance. A timely Safety Car could be enough to change the course of the race.
Generally, here at Baku, the overcut tends to be quite powerful, but this year, considering the dirt on the track, we believe that the undercut could be the best move to defend or gain positions on direct rivals if overtaking proves difficult.
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