Mixed grid and uncertain weather. A few hours before the start of the 2023 Formula 1 Miami GP, we have all the ingredients to anticipate a race that promises excitement. The changes made to the circuit, especially in terms of resurfacing the roads, are causing concerns about the possibility of overtaking during the race. The track is still very green and outside the usual racing line, the risk of losing grip is really high.
The rain expected during the American morning could further worsen the situation. However, we will focus on this in the last part of the article. Now let’s take a look at Pirelli’s press release, specifically at the advice given in terms of the possible race strategies.
Pirelli’s strategic advice
Like last year, the technicians of the Italian company believe that the fastest way to complete the 57 laps of the race is to make only one pit stop. Start on Medium (C3) and change to Hard (C2) between the twelfth and twentieth lap.
The double pit stop strategy could still be considered by the teams. Starting on Mediums, changing to Hards between the tenth and sixteenth lap, and then making a further change to Soft between the thirty-fifth and forty-fourth lap: this plan would not be too different in terms of overall time as compared to a single passage through the pit lane.
The alternative to two stops could be represented by a finish on Soft for the last 11-16 laps of the race. Teams may also have to deal with any entries by the Safety Car, considering that the only other GP run in Miami was neutralized twice, and the weather, as there is a significant chance of rain tomorrow, even during the race.
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Mario Isola’s comments:
Here are the statements made by Pirelli’s motorsport director at the end of the Miami qualifying session: “We witnessed a qualifying session full of excitement and twists, which ended with the first three positions occupied by Sergio Perez, Fernando Alonso, and Carlos Sainz, three Spanish-speaking drivers. As expected, the pole time was significantly lower than that recorded at the debut of the Miami GP last year. A progress of almost two seconds (1.955s) that could have been even more significant considering that no driver completed the second attempt in Q3. The Soft tires have demonstrated to behave very well: very fast not only on the first timed lap but also capable of regaining grip after one or two cooling laps.”
“In terms of the race,” says Mario Isola, focusing on tactical aspects, “the data collected so far confirms that the one-stop strategy, Medium-Hard, is on paper the most effective. It is true that the slight shortening of the pit-lane widens the window a little bit to hypothesize the double stop, but it is also true that the Soft tires have suffered from graining in the long runs seen. What has been said remains valid if the weather conditions remain stable, but we know that the forecasts indicate how rain could become a key factor of Sunday, before or during the race. When it rains, anything can happen.”
Rain and reduced pit lane open up to the possibility of two stops.
The weather forecast predicts rain in the morning and a high probability of rain during the race (the formation lap is scheduled for 3:30 pm local time, 9:30 pm Italian time). We also saw a very dirty and un-gripped track due to recent resurfacing. The tires, especially the Soft ones (which are unlikely to be considered by drivers in completely dry conditions), suffered from graining due to the green surface, and problems related to degradation could also affect other compounds if the rain that is expected to fall before lunch washes the asphalt.
Considering that the pit lane has been shortened compared to last year, we shouldn’t take it for granted that the one-stop strategy is really the fastest. Pirelli, of course, reasoned entirely theoretically, and the Medium-Hard strategy will certainly be preferred if the track remains completely dry today.
If it should rain in the morning and then be dry in the afternoon for the race, we could see a wider range of strategies, including two-stop ones. The Soft could then be used at the start to have better grip on the asphalt. Then, taking advantage of a more rubbered track, one could switch to Medium and then conclude the 2023 Formula 1 Miami Grand Prix on Hard tires.
If it rains, as always in these cases, the tires will be selected at the time, taking into account the weather conditions and the road surface.
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