Formula 1 arrives in Brazil at the 4.309-kilometre Autodromo Jose Carlos Pace in Brazil with the battle for the drivers’ title still wide open. Max Verstappen once again prepares to race in damage control mode aboard a Red Bull lacking the potential to contest for victory, while the 2024 Formula 1 championship outcome will depend on how well Lando Norris and McLaren can maximize their points, also considering the outcome of the track battle with Ferrari that counts toward the Constructors’ title.
In São Paulo, drivers race on a varied track that is different from the Circuit of the Americas in Austin and the Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez in Mexico City which preceded it in the last two weekends on this triple-header. This is reflected in a balanced distribution of loads between the two axles of the car, with good equilibrium among lateral, traction, and braking stress on the Pirelli tires. The first half of the lap consists of long straights interspersed with medium-high-speed corners, such as the famous Senna S or the descending left-hand turns known as the “Descida do Lago”, followed by a mixed section of medium-low speed. It is precisely here that McLaren aims to capitalize on its strengths.
Ferrari has proven competitive in low-speed sections, with the SF24 car able to attack the curbs and being particularly incisive during corner entry and exit, in the braking and traction phases, while the McLaren MCL38 stands out for its stability at the center of corners. Thus, when the cornering phase is brief, as in the 90-degree corners of Baku, Singapore, and Mexico City, the Italian side can keep up. However, in the longer turns, McLaren tends to have the upper hand, as expected to happen in Sao Paulo in corners 8, 9, and 10.
It is no coincidence that the Woking team has performed best on tracks such as Circuit de Catalunya-Barcelona, Budapest, and Zandvoort, which feature long low-speed turns. However, at that time, Ferrari was still lacking the front wing and new floor introduced in September, which made the SF-24 a more complete car. In general, McLaren performs best in the medium-high downforce configuration used in Brazil and previously during the dominant weekend in the Singapore Grand Prix. On that occasion, however, there was no direct race comparison with Ferrari, which fell behind in traffic after qualifying errors.
Let’s also take a look at the track surface factor and how it could influence the upcoming race weekend in Brazil: alongside the track layout there are several important variables, particularly the complete resurfacing of the circuit, while in Singapore, Austin, and Mexico City, only part of the circuit was resurfaced. Pirelli anticipates that the grip level will remain similar to the past, with a slightly higher step compared to Mexico. However, beyond the absolute level of grip, what matters most is its nature.
The grip provided by the tires can be of two types. The first is mechanical and depends on the tire’s penetration among the grains of track surface, but it is expected that this will decrease on Brazil’s new road surface, characterized by less roughness. Therefore, the adhesive grip becomes significant, associated with the chemical bonds that form between the ground and the tire surface. It will be up to the teams to skillfully understand how to make the best use of the new combination of tires and asphalt, especially in light of Pirelli’s choices, which bring the softest compounds in the range – C3, C4, and C5 – unlike the previous edition, which featured intermediate specifications.
Everything will take place over a weekend characterized by the frantic Sprint format, with only one practice session before the pit lane rules come into effect. Preparation done in the factory will be crucial, with Ferrari often managing to present a solid setup base, unlike McLaren, which struggled to find an effective setup between Austin and Mexico City. The Sprint variables and the new track surface therefore make McLaren’s superiority on the Brazilian track less certain, providing the Scuderia with reasons to hope.
In the past, the Brazilian track has offered numerous overtaking opportunities, thanks to high tire degradation that created performance gaps between the cars, leading to double pit stop strategies. However, the lower abrasiveness of the new track surface will reduce hysteresis mechanisms, namely the surface deformations of the tire responsible for temperature increases and degradation. On the other hand, this aspect could be offset by the softer compounds brought by Pirelli, which is why it will be important to discover the actual level of degradation.
The number of pit stops, overtaking opportunities during the race, and the importance of the qualifying session will depend on these factors. At that point, it will be up to the teams to decide how much to focus on an aggressive setup for qualifying and how much on a setup that protects the tires over the long distance. The reopening of the pit lane at the end of the Sprint will allow teams to reassess their choices, especially considering the actual risk of rain and the evolution of a track that, being recently resurfaced, will be significant.
What is certain is that temperature management will have less impact on race pace compared to the last event. The altitude decreases from 2,200 meters in Mexico City to 800 meters in Sao Paulo, with air density dropping from 22% to 10%. This also results in less strain on the braking system, estimated by Brembo with a rating of 3 out of 5. Drivers use the brakes for just 15% of the lap time, with the most challenging braking point remaining Turn 1, with deceleration peaks of up to 4.6 g.
Now let’s also take a short look at Max Verstappen’s prospects for the Brazilian Grand Prix weekend: for months now, Red Bull has been relegated to the role of the third force, at least in the hands of the Dutch driver. Max Verstappen will continue to cheer for Ferrari, a valuable ally in taking points away from his direct rival, Lando Norris. The reigning world champion will try to limit the damage, holding onto a car that can still perform well in qualifying, when the grip of fresh tires masks the car’s inherent weaknesses.
However, the likely replacement of the Power Unit and the subsequent five-position grid penalty could move Max Verstappen further from the front rows. This increases the chances of witnessing a direct comparison between the McLaren and Ferrari cars, at least in the main race. For the Dutchman, a challenge with Mercedes is shaping up, as they showed a race pace comparable to Red Bull’s in Mexico. In São Paulo, George Russell will also have the latest aerodynamic update package, but the Brackley team may dedicate part of its attention to tests for the 2025 Formula 1 season, as already hinted by Mercedes trackside engineering director Andrew Shovlin. No distractions, however, for Ferrari and McLaren, who are expected to engage in a duel in Brazil, the outcome of which will have heavy repercussions on the battle for the Constructors’ Championship.
— see video above —
Leave a Reply