A strategic battle awaits in Barcelona
The Spanish Grand Prix is shaping up to be very different from recent races. With the fast corners of the Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya and scorching track temperatures expected at Montmeló, tyre degradation is set to play a decisive role. The result could be a strategically fascinating race featuring at least two pit stops, with all three compounds potentially coming into play.
Race pace will be important, but strategy could prove just as decisive. Speaking to the Italian media, Pirelli Chief Engineer Simone Berra explained the various scenarios teams may face during Sunday’s race.
Teams surprise Pirelli
The strategic surprises have already started before the race itself, with several teams appearing to favour compounds different from those originally expected by Pirelli.
“On paper, we expected the teams to lean towards the softer compounds because the medium and soft tyres offer more grip,” Berra explained. “As we saw during the practice sessions, they do suffer from relatively high degradation, but compared to the hard compound they provide drivers with more confidence during a race stint.
“The main issue with the hard tyre is that it tends to slide. Here in Barcelona, thermal degradation is the biggest factor, and that degradation mainly develops on the tyre’s surface. The tyre slides, generates overheating and then slides even more. Besides offering less performance, it also gives drivers less confidence.”
Max Verstappen was the only driver among the leading teams to test the hard compound on Friday. Everyone else preserved both sets for the race.
“We expected teams to use at least one set of hard tyres during practice and then move towards softer compounds in the race,” Berra said. “Instead, they kept two sets of hard tyres available, which suggests they want to use them on Sunday. We are surprised, but it’s good when teams do something different from our expectations because it makes everything more interesting.”
The hard tyre variable
Although the hard compound appears likely to play a role, teams may approach it cautiously.
“Race interpretation will be very important,” Berra explained. “Because the hard tyre slides more, it can end up experiencing degradation levels similar to the medium and soft compounds. The difference is that it offers less grip, so there is a risk that it simply won’t provide enough performance.
“I expect teams to start on either the medium or the soft tyre. The length of the first stint will be interesting because some teams could choose shorter stints and stop earlier, either to force rivals into reacting or simply to try something different.”
Berra suggested that teams may use the hard compound during the second stint to evaluate its effectiveness before deciding how to finish the race.
“A team could run the hard tyre in the second stint to assess its performance, or they may wait for someone else to fit it first and observe how it behaves on another car. All three compounds are in play, which means there are many possible strategic solutions.”
The hard tyre does retain one significant advantage.
“Its wear rate is lower than both the medium and soft compounds. After FP2 we observed considerable volumetric wear, meaning wear spread across the tyre rather than being concentrated in one area. That helps control temperatures to some extent, but only partially, because surface temperatures still become very high. That makes it more difficult to manage the balance between the front and rear axles.”
Every strategy remains possible
According to Pirelli’s calculations, the most likely outcome remains a two-stop race, but there are several equally competitive approaches.
“Taking into account the tyre allocations available to the teams, we identified medium-hard-hard as the reference strategy,” Berra said. “However, it is actually slightly slower than two alternative strategies.
“One option uses all three compounds: start on the medium tyre, switch to the hard compound and then finish on the soft tyre with a lighter fuel load. Another possibility is to start on the soft, move onto the hard and finish on the medium. In general, any combination involving all three compounds appears to be among the fastest options on paper, including soft-medium-hard.”
Berra also explained that the race could naturally be divided into three almost equal sections: “In most scenarios we see lap 22 as the central point of the strategy, with a variation of three or four laps either side. Some drivers, particularly those starting on the soft tyre, may stop earlier because degradation could become significant. With track temperatures around 55 degrees Celsius, some could pit as early as laps 13 or 14.
“The problem is that stopping too early shifts the entire strategy forward and could leave drivers struggling for performance at the end of the race.”
The possibility of a three-stop strategy
Pirelli does not view a three-stop race as the fastest approach, but it remains a realistic alternative: “On paper, two stops remain the quickest strategy, especially when traffic is taken into account,” Berra said. “A three-stop strategy requires overtaking on track, and we know that following and passing other cars tends to increase tyre temperatures. That may reduce the overall advantage.
“It could be considered by teams wanting to use only the softer compounds. The leading teams have already used some of those tyres, which makes that option less attractive. Drivers starting further back with one or two extra sets of new tyres may think about starting on softs, moving to mediums and then finishing with two more soft-tyre stints.
“In that case, each stint would be reduced to around fifteen laps, allowing drivers to push harder, but the challenge of traffic would still remain.”
Charles Leclerc’s extra tyre set and the fight at the front
Charles Leclerc’s Q3 crash leaves the Ferrari driver with an additional set of new soft tyres available for the race. However, Berra believes the Monegasque is more likely to pursue a different strategy.
“What Charles Leclerc could do is extend the first stint slightly to create a tyre advantage later in the race. If he cannot overtake the cars ahead on track, having fresher tyres towards the end could give him stronger pace. That is probably the only real alternative available to him. Personally, I think it will be difficult for him to fight for the podium.”
As for the battle at the front, Berra sees Mercedes as the benchmark heading into the race.
“Mercedes is very strong and that is not a surprise. They are extremely good at managing temperatures in hot conditions, and we have seen that in the data. We know Ferrari has brought a substantial upgrade package and I expect them to be competitive, but at the moment I still see Mercedes one step ahead.”
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