Suzuka Q3 performance analysis: Ferrari SF-24 fails to correctly turn on Soft tires

Not the best qualifying for Scuderia Ferrari in Japan. Carlos Sainz secured fourth place on the grid at the 5.807-kilometre Suzuka International Racing Course on Saturday, while his Maranello teammate Charles Leclerc was eighth fastest in the final phase of Q3, where positions four to ten were fought over to the nearest thousandths of a second, illustrated by the 104 thousandths four place gap between the two Scuderia drivers.

It was clear from this morning’s third free practice session that the SF-24 lacked pace over a single flying lap and the situation unfortunately did not improve by much during this afternoon’s qualifying session. Charles Leclerc needed two sets of new Soft tyres to ensure he made the cut to Q2 and that made life complicated as it meant he only had one new set of Softs for Q3. On the other hand, Carlos Sainz had a more straightforward time of it, getting through Q1 and Q2 on his first runs, therefore being able to have two sets of the softest compound available for the final shoot-out at the Suzuka circuit.

Like the majority of drivers, the Spaniard set his best time on his first run with a 1.28.682, giving it his very best shot. Charles Leclerc opted to wait in the garage to go for his only attempt at pole position when the others were pitting for their second sets of tyres. The Monegasque was very quick in the middle sector, but at the line he was seventh quickest with a 1.28.786. One of the only drivers to improve on his second run was Fernando Alonso, who got ahead of Charles Leclerc, who will therefore start from eighth on the grid. Carlos Sainz did a very similar time to that of his first run but without improving, to stay fourth.

Overall, the Ferrari SF-24 car didn’t achieve the progression expected from Friday to Saturday. Already in the last free practice session, the red car lagged behind in terms of pace on single fast laps. The reasons can be traced back to setup and management of the Pirelli tires. Certainly, the Italian car showed good balance. However, a slight over-rotation in some fast corners, managed by the drivers, created some minor issues.

In turn 7, where the red car was supposed to find a lot of speed, it actually fails to be effective, with the rear end tending to slip away. The snake section is where most of the gap accumulates compared to the frontrunners, especially against the Red Bull RB20 of Max Verstappen and Sergio Perez. This is because the SF-24 isn’t agile enough in direction changes, an area where it’s forced to reduce speed at mid-corner. However, it’s worth pointing out that the gap isn’t solely due to the difference in handling of the car, because Ferrari struggles even when compared to McLaren and Aston Martin.

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A percentage of this therefore must also be attributed to the management of the warm-up strategy for the Soft tire, namely the C3. The impression is that the Maranello team never managed to properly turn on the compound on a flying lap. Therefore, they didn’t construct the outlap sufficiently compared to others. It’s a lap not very aggressive, without “waving” and without trying to warm up the tire by applying lateral force, but rather relying heavily on braking, hence longitudinal force. Even Charles Leclerc highlighted in his post-qualifying interview how they struggled a lot this year to find the right warm-up strategy.

In other words, specifically, Scuderia Ferrari didn’t find the correct hysteresis process. The Pirelli tire must undergo a certain deformation process during the outlap, so that it can heat up evenly. The Monegasque tried many different situations but none of them seemed to work. Also, due to a single attempt in Q3, Charles Leclerc was beaten by his Maranello teammate Carlos Sainz in qualifying. With one more lap, the Monegasque could have put together his lap without the strong concern of making a mistake and losing the chance to qualify better, especially considering the fact that most of the drivers improved a bit on the second run due to the track evolution.

Japanese GP/Performance analysis Q3: Red Bull dominates. McLaren beats Ferrari SF-24 in several key points

The Red Bull RB20 single-seater is strong especially in terms of agility in direction changes and lateral grip. The latter is well balanced between the two axes and from yesterday they slightly loaded the rear to stabilize it. A clear objective that was achieved by the Red Bull technicians since there was no correction in terms of trajectory when Max Verstappen and Sergio Perez went through the snake section of the Suzuka circuit. Observing the telemetry data related to the micro sectors between Ferrari and Red Bull in the final stages of qualifying, we can easily notice how the RB20 has improved even in the trajectory of turn 1, a key corner where the SF-24 car dominated in the first free practice session yesterday.

In turn, the red car improved the exit of turn 7, but overall in the snake section, it didn’t have enough temperature in the tire. This is why a significant gap accumulates in the first sector, while already in the second sector the situation improves since the Ferrari Formula 1 car manages to make a difference on entry. Even turns 14-15, in compression, with two different apexes, remained Ferrari territory. However, on traction, the Prancing Horse doesn’t optimize its performance even today.

In the fast sections, Red Bull remained clearly dominant. Even at the final chicane, the story remains the same: the car from Maranello demands a lot on entry, but during acceleration, the RB20 single-seater pulls away. However, both cars manage to attack the curbs well without being unsettled, a capability not shared with most other cars. As we suggested yesterday, McLaren had the potential to find a lot of speed, given that the balance needed at the Suzuka circuit leans more towards the front and the MCL38 presents a very stable load.

In the initial snake section, the papaya-colored cars were very strong, among the most solid in that type of fast corner, where a single steering input is required. In other words, we’re talking about a type of turn where not much time is spent in cornering and there’s a single apex. Overall, McLaren seems to have a setup oriented towards the race, namely medium-high downforce adapted to race speeds.

Quantifying what’s been said, we can notice how Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri were able to achieve an excellent split time in the first sector. In fact, they are the only ones on par with Max Verstappen’s Red Bull. In the second sector, however, it’s Ferrari that plays the role of the second force behind the RB20 of the Austrian side. Here lies most of their gap at the finish line. In the final sector, Lando Norris is only a tenth away from Max Verstappen, confirming himself as very fast in this last sector.

Turning our attention to the performance of Mercedes, we can say that they struggled in the fast corners, where they still lack rear aerodynamic stability. The situation has improved for the team led by Toto Wolff, but it’s not yet at the level of their direct competitors. Through onboard views, in fact, we noticed minor steering corrections, especially once Lewis Hamilton and George Russell began to apply throttle.

It’s as if the car is always unpredictable. But overall, it should be pointed out that it was faster than Ferrari in the first sector. This makes us think that today the SF-24 failed to unlock performance through the tires, suffering tremendously from tire activation. Overall, the W15 single-seater doesn’t have a sector of strength or weakness. Lewis Hamilton loses approximately 2 tenths in every sector of the track as compared to the three-time world champion of Red Bull. From the comparison of the micro-sectors, we can confirm some things just explained.

The strength of McLaren in the snake section is evident, and in line changes, the MCL38 is very stable, managing to maintain a lot of speed at mid-corner. This made a big difference today in the qualifying session for the Japanese Grand Prix. Red Bull is superb in almost all of turn 7 while leaving something to the opponents at the exit, sharing some points. The Woking car also seems strong in braking, noticeable at the entry of turn 11. The same turn provides us with another indication: the RB20 is currently the strongest in traction. Both at turn 11 and at the final chicane 17-18.

The Ferrari SF-24 proved to be competitive in race trim in free practice, with tyre degradation seemingly under control, which is not the case for some other cars. It will be a long race, probably a two-stopper and so there are plenty of variables that could come into play. Obviously, the aim for both drivers of the Maranello team is to move up the order. Carlos Sainz can expect a solid race and will attempt to challenge Lando Norris for a place on the podium, while Charles Leclerc’s afternoon at the Suzuka circuit will probably be dependent on what happens immediately after the start of the Japanese Grand Prix, when he will be trying to get ahead of some cars off the line.

Ferrari SF-24