After the first four races of the 2024 Formula 1 season, there’s a verdict confirmed by the numbers in the Constructors standings. The only team that can try to bother Red Bull is Scuderia Ferrari. Not always, of course, otherwise the Maranello team would indeed be a contender for the top spots, but in particular scenarios, like was seen at the Albert Park circuit in Melbourne, the Scuderia is the only candidate for the role of a thorn in the side of the Austrian team.
Saying this after a Red Bull one-two may seem out of place, but the Japanese Grand Prix weekend at the Suzuka circuit was a much-feared test in Maranello. The Red Bull RB20 was considered out of reach, a situation that was obviously confirmed on Sunday, but there were also fears about McLaren, very confident on a track that represents a real aerodynamic test bench.
In the end, Ferrari concluded the Japanese trip with the maximum possible points, a result that was by no means guaranteed after the qualifying session on Saturday. The 53 race laps confirmed perfect management, from tires to strategies, from pit stops to instructions provided to both Carlos Sainz and Charles Leclerc. It wasn’t a verdict taken for granted, and the confirmation came at the end of the race from the faces and comments of the McLaren drivers, who started the weekend thinking about a very different race and a completely different outcome.
Ferrari’s aggressive pace was evident from the first stint when Carlos Sainz had no trouble staying in Lando Norris’s wake. When McLaren called Lando into the pits (switching from mediums to hards on lap 11), the Spaniard was able to complete another 4 laps, returning to the track after the pit stop with the second set of mediums. With the second set of ‘yellows’, Carlos Sainz extended the stint’s duration compared to Lando Norris by ten laps, and once the last stop was completed, he managed on lap 44 to pass McLaren thanks to much fresher tires.
In the Scuderia’s garage, they managed two different strategies. Charles Leclerc’s race changed drastically when in the first stint the tire degradation with the mediums was less than expected. The Monegasque managed to nurse the tires, reaching the crucial window to consider a one-stop race, which was dubbed as ‘plan C’ before the race.
Charles Leclerc also allowed himself the luxury of leading for a few laps (from 18th to 20th), but the Japanese Grand Prix wasn’t his race. After moving up to seventh at the end of the first flying lap (overtaking Lewis Hamilton), the goal was to get the better of Oscar Piastri, Fernando Alonso, and Lando Norris, a target achieved thanks to one less pit stop allowed by perfect tire management. There was nothing more the Monegasque could have done better on Sunday considering his starting position. The pace was really good as well as tire management, but Charles Leclerc knows that as a driver, you always have to look at the negatives that emerged over the weekend, and he is very well aware that they concern qualifying.
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The consistency of performance of the SF-24 emerges from the numbers. Always on the podium in the four races held so far in the 2024 Formula 1 season and a Constructors’ Championship in which Ferrari has climbed to 120 points, 21 fewer than Red Bull and 51 more than McLaren, which holds the third position. As confirmed by Ferrari team principal Frederic Vasseur at the end of the Japanese Grand Prix, the Italian side has been making great strides during the winter and we are seeing the results on the track. Ferrari’s Sunday was very solid, in which the team brought home the best result possible after Saturday’s difficult qualifying, a fundamental aspect that the French manager pointed out his team absolutely needs to improve on. In the race, Ferrari did did everything perfectly, from strategy to tire management. Both drivers were very good at managing the strategy decided for them.
Looking at the standings, Fred Vasseur admits that it’s clear Ferrari still need to improve if they want to challenge Red Bull during the current championship. And that’s what Ferrari intend to do starting from the next race, in China.
More than Max Verstappen, who will probably be vulnerable only in certain limited conditions, the next target for Ferrari must be Sergio Perez. This weekend, Red Bull also benefited from the latest technical updates brought to the Suzuka circuit, a substantial package that was immediately endorsed by technicians and drivers. The 2024 Formula 1 season from now on will mainly live on this distant confrontation that for now has seen Red Bull take a significant initial step.
The Ferrari team seen in Japan can be confident it has a solid foundation to build on and is now placed in a solitary space between Red Bull and the rest of the pack. Thinking about challenging Max Verstappen today seems too far-fetched, but hypothesizing an assault on Sergio Perez is much less so, provided that effective updates arrive in a reasonable time for another push and step forward for Ferrari.
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