Second half of Ferrari's 2023 season: long agony or development opportunity?

The stage in the picturesque setting of the Spa Francorchamps circuit marked the end of the first part of the 2023 Formula 1 season, thoroughly dominated by the Red Bull/Max Verstappen combination. An unprecedented dominance, embellished by twelve victories in as many races. For the first time in ages, the superiority of a car is not questioned by any suspicion from the competition, at least from a technical perspective.

This factor adds even more admiration for the latest creation designed from the genius of Adrian Newey. The discouragement of rivals is the thermometer of the current balance of power: the car of the Milton Keynes team is considered practically unreachable in the current Formula 1 campaignson. The teams are now resigned to competing for the title of the Austrian team’s antagonist. The release of updates to the basic specifications of the “midfield” cars has led to various changes in terms of performance. Aston Martin, Ferrari, Mercedes, and finally McLaren have benefited from the evident convergence towards the aerodynamic paradigm adopted by Red Bull since last season.

However, the history of Formula 1 teaches us that replicating a technical solution is not a guarantee of success, especially if integrated into a complex system designed based on completely different rationales. In this context, it is necessary to consider that the reigning world champion team may not have deliberately reached the maximum potential of the vehicle to avoid attracting the attention of the powers that be (FIA and Liberty Media, editorial note) who are not pleased with a soporific championship. What can, therefore, be reasonably expected in the second half of the season, with particular reference to the Prancing Horse?

F1. The goals of the Maranello team in the second part of the 2023 Formula 1 championship
The results achieved so far by the historic Maranello-based team are absolutely unsatisfactory in relation to the pre-season expectations. The SF-23, a logical evolution of the F1-75, has shown a lack of aerodynamic load since the tests in Bahrain, the true hallmark of the 2022 car, at least before the effectiveness of the technical directive TD039. The inability to exploit the flexibility of the floor (Flexi Floor) in the rear part of the car has effectively “mutilated” the F1-75 and consequently the 675 project designed to exploit the grey area of the technical regulations cleverly exploited by the engineers in Maranello.

The change of direction in Spain with the debut of a sort of “B” version of the SF-23 certified that the original aerodynamic philosophy adopted by the red team at the dawn of the new generation of ground-effect cars had no further margin for development. Although in a less “noticeable” way, the red car has started the process of convergence towards the reference aerodynamic concept. Starting from the race in the Spanish land, the results of the red team have been very fluctuating, to the point of disorienting the technical area of the Prancing Horse. The evolved version of SF-23 coexists with the delicate balance between absolute performance and consistency in race pace. The race in Belgium provided positive feedback regarding tire management, not forgetting that Charles Leclerc had to manage the fuel quantity in the last stint of the race. Probably the Maranello team will continue the progressive refinement work on the car similarly to what Mercedes did last season with the W13 “B.”

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The technical regulations provide that wind tunnel tests are regulated according to a sort of “sliding scale” that assigns the percentage of Aero Test based on the constructors’ standings. From July until the end of the season, Scuderia Ferrari will have approximately 22% more Aero Test and nine “runs” for each additional week compared to Red Bull.

Of course, the greater possibility to test updates in the wind tunnel is strictly linked to the remaining budget of the historic Italian team. If there are sufficient financial resources to physically implement what has been tested in the Wind Tunnel, the red team could certainly benefit from it, trying to narrow the gap with Red Bull and distance themselves from direct midfield competition. Much will also depend on the strategic choices of the management at Via Abetone. If the development of SF-23 in the next 10 races is considered vital for Project 676, then Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz could experience a more rewarding second part of the season.

Conversely, if the top management of Maranello does not follow the precedent set by Mercedes, which developed the W13 “B” until Austin 2022, finding themselves at the beginning of 2023 in the same position as the previous season, then the upcoming races on the calendar could be really challenging.