A rather disappointing start to the second half of the 2023 Formula One season made it hard to expect such a strong performance from Ferrari on the eve of the Italian Grand Prix. However, during this Friday, many had to change their minds, maybe even some members of the team itself. The SF-23, featuring a celebratory livery for the occasion, managed to stand out both in qualifying configuration, with Carlos Sainz holding the best time of the day (1’21”355) ahead of Norris and Perez, and in times set with a lot of fuel on board. In this case, it was Charles Leclerc who excelled, along with the Mexican Red Bull driver (just a 36-millisecond difference in their average estimated lap times, which is why both are highlighted in purple).
That said, fans of the Scuderia can breathe a small sigh of relief. There are all the prerequisites for seeing a Ferrari fighting for more than just a Top-5 finish. Considering today’s work, a podium finish should be within reach. However, victory is still a distant goal, and we can’t rule out possible surprises either. We can say that finishing in the top five positions should be achievable, while third place should be considered the highest achievable goal if Verstappen and Perez complete the race without problems. Let us explain why.
The red flag provides significant assistance to Ferrari
If we simply observe the data below without analyzing them in any way, we might cry miracle and expect to see both SF-23 cars competing for the event win. Unfortunately, we must not and cannot stay on the surface. Upon closer examination, it is clear that Sergio Perez’s crash was a kind of turning point in the timing sheet, especially for those in the red suits.
Before the red flag, Perez was undoubtedly the fastest driver, followed by Verstappen. The two Red Bulls were untouchable. Albon (Williams) was actually the second-fastest driver, closely followed by an excellent Leclerc, then Carlos Sainz, Russell, and Norris in that order. Ferrari was far behind, but after Checo’s off-track excursion, even though apparently everyone returned to the track under “equal” conditions with the same set of Medium tires used previously, both Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz managed to make better use of the tires, setting impressive first times in the low 1’24”8-1’24”9 range. No one else managed to replicate these times.
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Why did this happen? Perhaps they did a better job than others in terms of tire management, quickly bringing the tires up to temperature (which raises some doubts), or maybe they decided to unload some fuel from the car to test the pace they would have had in different fuel conditions. Therefore, wanting to remain more objective and realistic, we feel that it’s more appropriate to consider the table and not the graph that emerged from this session (in the graph, it was decided to merge the times before and after the red flag because the drivers stayed on the same set of tires used previously, which you can find below).
Red Bull Very Fast, Ferrari Fighting for the Podium
From this, it emerges that Red Bull is very fast, with Williams as an extraordinarily strong second force with Albon (although still with a doubt about fuel load), and Ferrari in P3. McLaren and Mercedes are battling closely just behind. Aston Martin, strangely, is further back, accompanied by Alpine. The McLaren team did well in the qualifying simulation, but then, in Norris’s words, they couldn’t find the grip to extract all the potential in race conditions.
To all of this, we must add that we shouldn’t rely too much on Mercedes. An in-form Alex Albon suggests that the Silver Arrows may have hidden their true pace today. For example, Hamilton was consistently slower than Russell during FP2, and his top speed was always about 5 km/h lower than that of his teammate. Five km/h carry significant weight at Monza, a circuit also known as the Temple of Speed.
However, if you’re a Ferrari fan, it’s Friday, so it’s also right to dream a little. And if you don’t dream in Monza, when will you?
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