It seems like yesterday we were commenting on the first race of this championship, and yet, we’ve already arrived at the tenth round of the 2025 season. The ‘Performance Check’ column was created to better understand how the performance potential of Formula 1 cars (as seen in qualifying) has evolved over the course of the championship.
In Montréal, we introduce a new category: medium-low downforce. The circuit built on Notre-Dame Island is certainly very unique. The asphalt offers low grip, there are heavy braking zones and significant acceleration points, making it a stop-and-go type layout. First, as usual, let’s start with our customary recap, then analyze how the performance values have changed for this type of layout.
Medium downforce (China–Imola)
In China (R02), we had McLaren, Mercedes, Red Bull, and Ferrari all within 286 thousandths—a very tight group. Racing Bulls was fairly isolated at 152 thousandths behind Ferrari, followed by the rest of the pack, also closely grouped, except for Alpine which was further behind.
The qualifying session for the Emilia-Romagna GP (R07) was undoubtedly influenced by the behavior of the new Soft C6 tires introduced by Pirelli to try to increase on-track spectacle, which in turn boosted unpredictability.
If qualifying had ended in Q2, Williams would still have been the undisputed fourth force. In Q3, Carlos Sainz and Alex Albon couldn’t replicate their Q2 times, which allowed Alonso—who did match his earlier lap—to benefit. Apart from the use of C5 and C6 tires, the pecking order remained similar to previous events.
Aston Martin made significant gains thanks to a large update package introduced at Imola, while Ferrari struggled and fell back into the midfield. The Italian GP confirmed that there are more issues in Maranello than what Vasseur and the drivers publicly admit, but to truly understand whether Ferrari has made progress in understanding the SF-25, we’ll need to wait for the Spanish GP, a more conventional track compared to Monaco.
High downforce (Monaco)
Monte Carlo is a track like no other (and F1 travels there for Round 08 of the 2025 championship). There’s nothing else like it on the calendar. Teams bring packages specifically designed for the Principality’s narrow streets, with some even bringing back 2024 solutions to better manage the budget cap. Ferrari returned to center stage, surprising everyone. This could be due to how the mechanics interact with the car’s setup. The team from Maranello struggles to get the SF-25 running at the correct ride height and generally tends to run it higher than rivals. In Monaco, everyone raises ride height, so Ferrari’s natural high ride height reduces the gap (at least, that’s one hypothesis).
Ferrari was the only team able to challenge McLaren, with all others trailing. Among them was a struggling Red Bull, with Verstappen over seven tenths off the leader. It was a good day for Williams, Aston Martin, Haas, and Racing Bulls, who provided a great midfield battle (all very close). Mercedes had a bad day, affected by Antonelli’s mistake and Russell’s technical issue. Sauber and Alpine were out of contention. The C6 tires worked better than in Imola. Q3 ended with all best times set on red compound.
Medium/high downforce (Australia, Japan, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Miami, Spain)
In Melbourne (R01), Norris and McLaren managed to open a 4-tenths gap over their closest rival, Verstappen’s Red Bull. Behind Max, things were tight with Red Bull, Racing Bulls, Williams, and Ferrari within 274 thousandths. Alpine, Aston Martin, Sauber, and Haas were clearly behind (see graph below).
In Japan (R03), the picture changed. At Suzuka, Red Bull was close to McLaren, and Ferrari could challenge Mercedes. Racing Bulls, Williams, Aston Martin, Haas, and Alpine were on par, while Sauber lagged behind.
In Bahrain (R04), teams aimed to find the right balance between generating enough downforce for fast corners and preserving tire life while staying quick on the straights. Bahrain was an outlier due to unexpected high degradation. McLaren performed strongly in all conditions. Mercedes was 168 thousandths back, Ferrari 166 behind Russell. Alpine was just 41 thousandths from Ferrari, while Verstappen was more than 2 tenths adrift. The entire top 10 was within 6 tenths. Red Bull struggled, Ferrari climbed.
In Bahrain, it was believed Ferrari’s gains came from a new floor and the heat. But the Jeddah (R05) data—where tire management returned to seasonal norms—suggests the Bahrain pace was due to exploiting specific track conditions.
At Jeddah, Ferrari dropped back to fourth force. Red Bull bounced back, suggesting Bahrain was just a blip. There, Red Bull and McLaren were separated by just 10 thousandths. Mercedes was strong, with both cars 113 thousandths from the top. Ferrari was fourth at 376 thousandths. Behind, the midfield was tight: Racing Bulls, Williams, and Alpine were within 167 thousandths, but over 7 tenths from the front. Aston Martin, Haas, and Sauber closed the order, all over a second back.
In Miami (R06), all Mercedes-powered teams, including McLaren, changed their power units to match Red Bull and Ferrari, who had done so in Jeddah. Teams used near-identical aero setups as in Saudi Arabia. The front-runners—Red Bull, McLaren, and Mercedes—were separated by just 67 thousandths, with a strong performance by Kimi Antonelli.
The weak spot was Ferrari. Maranello’s engineers continue to struggle to understand and exploit their package. Hamilton and Leclerc drove cautiously in Miami, as if lacking the aerodynamic load needed for cornering confidence—this was the main issue in qualifying.
Hamilton was eliminated in Q2. Leclerc suffered heavily in the fast corners of sector 1, losing 4 tenths to Verstappen. In the remaining two sectors—with slower corners and long straights—his performance improved. In fact, he was fastest in sector 3, but the time lost earlier (4 tenths in S1 and 2 tenths in S2) was too much. The car lacks downforce, or they don’t know how to generate it properly. Result: Ferrari dropped to 550 thousandths off the pace.
Williams, boosted by a fresh engine, became the temporary fourth force and closed the gap to 365 thousandths. Sauber improved significantly thanks to Bortoleto’s strong Saturday. Aston Martin dropped to the back.
In Spain (R09), much was expected from TD018. Some hoped it would curb McLaren’s dominance, but in reality, this FIA directive ended up favoring the championship leader.
In recent medium/high downforce races, McLaren, Mercedes, and Red Bull were close. But in Barcelona, the gaps widened. The MCL39 remained well ahead, with Red Bull and Mercedes matching each other but clearly behind. Ferrari gained a few tenths, but still remained far off the leading teams.
Medium/low downforce (Canada)
Mercedes takes advantage of engine change, Ferrari still six tenths behind
With its stop-and-go layout and medium/low downforce demands, Circuit Gilles Villeneuve puts significant strain on power unit components. That’s why some teams opted to give their drivers fresh engines to gain grid spots and improve race performance.
Power unit replacements were made for Russell (Mercedes), Antonelli (Mercedes), Alonso (Aston Martin), Lawson (Racing Bulls), Leclerc (Ferrari), and Hamilton (Ferrari). George and Kimi maximized the new PU’s potential (they also benefited from floor updates). Russell took pole, beating Verstappen’s Red Bull by nearly 2 tenths and gapping Ferrari by more than 6 tenths (both Red Bull and Ferrari had no upgrades). Excellent fourth for Kimi, behind Piastri. Mercedes and Red Bull, unlike the MCL39, have cars that naturally suit this type of circuit, contributing to this shift—with Mercedes ahead, Red Bull and McLaren following at about 2 tenths.
McLaren brought upgrades but chose for the race to run a medium-downforce rear wing on both cars, along with a new front suspension (different geometry) preferred by Oscar. The revised front wing was temporarily shelved.
Ferrari remained over six tenths off despite engine changes. Leclerc might have placed higher without Q3 traffic and his crucial mistake, but realistically, he could only have aimed for Antonelli’s fourth—no better. The SF-25 is still very hard to drive and struggles in qualifying across most track types.
Behind, Alonso did well, leveraging his new power unit to finish well ahead of Racing Bulls and Williams (though race pace might differ—see here). Then came a strong Alpine, with Colapinto qualifying 12th despite being over 1” off pole (starting 10th due to Hadjar and Tsunoda penalties), followed by Sauber and Haas.
In two weeks, the paddock moves to Austria (June 27–29), a short, fast track with straights, slow corners, and high-speed bends. A mix that will favor cars with versatile performance characteristics.
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