Friday Pace Analysis – Ferrari quicker on a single lap, strong race pace for Mercedes. Friday Pace Analysis.

Some of the best Grands Prix in recent times have come after running in Friday practice was limited, which bodes well for this week’s Azerbaijan Grand Prix after a loose drain cover in Free Practice 1 damaged George Russell’s Williams and forced an end to the session without a competitive lap being set. Second practice was more straightforward, but everyone was playing catch up. So of the laps we did get, who’s looking in the best shape ahead of the weekend? Let’s crunch the numbers…

ONE-LAP PACE

Ferrari left China disappointed, Sebastian Vettel and Charles Leclerc soundly beaten by a Silver Arrow that looked at its most impressive in 2019 on the expansive Shanghai International Circuit. Ferrari had hoped to have caused them more of a headache, but they struggled to get the tyres to work once more.

But, as has been the case consistently this year, Mattia Binotto and has team have steadfastly refused to get downbeat, instead preferring to look at the positives. An upgrade, which has been months in the planning, made its debut in Baku. It would be their first major improvement to the SF90 since testing.

Best single lap
All times set on softs, in second practice

1 Ferrari (Charles Leclerc) 1:42.872s
2 Mercedes (Lewis Hamilton) 1:43.541s +0.669s
3 Red Bull (Max Verstappen) 1:43.793s +0.921s
4 Toro Rosso (Daniil Kvyat) 1:44.177s +1.305s
5 McLaren (Carlos Sainz) 1:44.183s +1.311s
6 Haas (Kevin Magnussen) 1:44.901s +2.029s
7 Alfa Romeo (Antonio Giovinazzi) 1:45.366s +2.494s
8 Racing Point (Sergio Perez) 1:45.436s +2.564s
9 Renault (Daniel Ricciardo) 1:45.483s +2.611s
10 Williams (Robert Kubica) 1:48.111s +5.239s

The initial signs are good. Charles Leclerc set a blistering pace in second practice, the Monegasque’s best lap on the soft tyres just over three-tenths quicker than his more decorated team mate Sebastian Vettel. “The Ferraris are clearly very quick,” lamented their Mercedes rival Lewis Hamilton.

The reigning world champion was understandably concerned, given his best effort was a staggering 0.669s adrift. “It’s unlikely that we will find seven-tenths overnight, but we will do everything we can to push the car in the right direction,” added Hamilton. But Leclerc isn’t too sure that quite rings true.

“We are pretty strong,” he says. “On the other hand, I’m absolutely sure there is more to come from Mercedes. I am sure tomorrow when they put everything together, it’s going to be very tight.”

Looking at corner analysis, Mercedes appear to have an edge – but it’s marginal at 0.02s over Ferrari and McLaren. When it comes to power limited corners, it’s Ferrari who are king, the Scuderia holding an impressive 0.43s over Mercedes and 0.85s over Red Bull.

Given the track didn’t get ‘cleaned up’ after FP1, and was therefore still very dirty and slippery, we should be wary of reading too much into today’s leading lap times. But it’s notable that both Ferrari drivers appeared happier and more positive about their chances than last time out in China.

RACE PACE

This is not an easy section to complete this week as not only was FP1 essentially a write-off but FP2 was disrupted by two red flags, courtesy of Stroll and Kvyat, which meant long runs were disrupted. We’ve crunched the numbers, based on the data that we have got, and Mercedes have emerged on top of the pile.
The Silver Arrows have a 0.4s/lap advantage over Red Bull, with Ferrari a further 0.4s/lap further back in third. Leclerc was pretty impressed by Mercedes’ long run pace, but talk to people in the know, and they feel that Ferrari are actually much closer than the numbers suggest.

Red Bull’s race pace looks decent, as it so often does, and while Max Verstappen will very likely be in the mix and in a position to take advantage if Baku delivers one its crazy races, his team mate Pierre Gasly will have to do it the hard way after being given a pit lane start for failing to stop at the weighbridge in practice.