The big shock in the start of the 2020 Formula One season at the Red Bull Ring was the surprising lack of pace from Ferrari. While they’ve been downplaying their competitiveness ever since pre-season testing, there was a sense that there was a bit of sandbagging going on and, once things got serious in qualifying, things wouldn’t be so bad.
The three teams running Ferrari power have basically all lost a second a lap average since last season, and the chances of all three of the teams designing a car that’s aerodynamically worse than last year’s is pretty slim.
Race-winning Formua 1 technical director Gary Anderson made a speed trap analysis for ‘The Race’ and points out what the figures show us after the 2020 Hungarian Grand Prix:
“I have taken a look at the top speeds from Hungaroring qualifying. These are simply the fastest speed set for each driver and I have compared the speed across the start/finish line and the speed at the speed trap at the end of the main straight (310 metres before Turn 1, to be precise) and then the speed delta between them.
As I am into the chassis more than drivers, I have taken the fastest driver across the start/finish line as each team’s ultimate potential as this is a consequence of the last-corner speed and acceleration onto the straight. This is what we get.
| Start/finish (km/h) | Trap Speed (km/h) | Delta (km/h) | |
| Racing Point (Perez) | 266.9 | 313.2 | 46.3 |
| Red Bull (Verstappen) | 266.4 | 310 | 43.6 |
| Mercedes (Bottas) | 265.6 | 312.5 | 46.9 |
| McLaren (Sainz) | 264.7 | 306.7 | 42 |
| Renault (Ricciardo) | 263.7 | 307 | 43.3 |
| AlphaTauri (Kvyat) | 263.3 | 307.5 | 44.2 |
| Williams (Russell) | 263.2 | 308.2 | 45 |
| Haas (Grosjean) | 262.6 | 306.4 | 43.8 |
| Ferrari (Leclerc) | 262 | 304.3 | 42.3 |
| Alfa Romeo (Giovinazzi) | 261.7 | 306.9 | 45.2 |
If we take all that and just look at the difference in speed between the two points, it gives us a clue on car drag and/or engine power as it’s focusing on how much straightline speed a car is gaining as it continues down the straight. So putting that in order we get the following ranking:
| Delta | Engine | |
| Mercedes (Bottas) | 46.9 | Mercedes |
| Racing Point (Perez) | 46.3 | Mercedes |
| Alfa Romeo (Giovinazzi) | 45.2 | Ferrari |
| Williams (Russell) | 45 | Mercedes |
| AlphaTauri (Kvyat) | 44.2 | Honda |
| Haas (Grosjean) | 43.8 | Ferrari |
| Red Bull (Verstappen) | 43.6 | Honda |
| Renault (Ricciardo) | 43.3 | Renault |
| Ferrari (Leclerc) | 42.3 | Ferrari |
| McLaren (Sainz) | 42 | Renault |
This is taken from one set of data from one track that requires a high downforce level, so we need to take it with a pinch of salt. But I’m pretty sure I can see a trend through it.
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If you combined these numbers with the qualifying position, you could say that might just pinpoint a direction for development of both chassis and engine.
Mercedes is good on both. This is stating the obvious as it has three pole positions and three wins but it has done an exceptional job.
Red Bull needs better efficiency. This lack of delta speed could come from running more downforce to compensate for the car being a bit nervous to drive.
Ferrari needs more power, more downforce and greater efficiency. It needs a bit of everything.
Silverstone is just around the corner and if the weather is favourable it’s a compromise circuit of downforce against drag.
With that in mind Mercedes should be in a world of its own. And Ferrari, unless it has a miracle up its sleeve, will struggle more than it has done so far this year.” – Gary Anderson explained in his analysis.
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