Ferrari: why 2024 F1 season is "worth double" amid developments and influence on 2025 championship

In just a few hours, the wraps will come off the new F1 Ferrari, and expectations are, as always, high. It will be the first red car designed entirely under the management of Frederic Vasseur, the team principal who arrived in Maranello in January of last year, and it must redeem a 2023 of highs and lows where the Prancing Horse secured only one victory, with Carlos Sainz in Singapore. But these are not the only reasons why the car to be presented on February 13 with a web launch holds crucial importance. The year 2024 will represent a key year for future prospects.

Red Bull is still the favorite, given the significant advantage it had over all other teams at the end of the last season. However, the strides that Ferrari will make will be a fundamental foundation to project towards 2025 and then tackle the regulatory revolution awaiting F1 from 2026 with the introduction of new, more electrified hybrid power units and entirely different cars. Hence, it can be said that the World Championship starting on March 2 in Bahrain is worth double (if not triple) for the Italian Scuderia in the pursuit of the top. Choosing the wrong car means falling behind, with little hope of recovery, even in subsequent seasons.

Therefore, a significant challenge lies ahead for Fred Vasseur and his team, starting with the confirmed Enrico Cardile (chassis) and Enrico Gualtieri (engine), under whose leadership a car quite different from previous ones has been developed, already showing significant progress in simulations. Closing the gap with Red Bull is essential to return to more frequent battles for victory, as seen in 2022, and to create the conditions for a potential overtaking in the coming seasons. The Drivers’ World Championship has eluded Ferrari since 2007 (Kimi Raikkonen), and the 16 years of drought weigh heavily.

A SOLID FOUNDATION – But why is 2024 worth double? To understand this, one must look ahead. F1 is on the eve of an epochal change that will require an unprecedented technical effort for teams since 2025 will be a transition year sacrificing car development to concentrate efforts on the 2026 projects, which are enormously demanding. A massive transfer of parts and components from current cars to those of the next year is expected to simplify construction processes and reduce costs (as required by the budget cap). Those with a good foundation to exploit could enjoy an immediate advantage, indirectly impacting 2026 as well. It is not coincidental that Ferrari and other pursuers fought to prevent someone (the dominant Red Bull) from gaining an advantage by starting work on 2026 well in advance.

The FIA has stipulated that aerodynamics for future cars can only be studied starting from January 1, 2025. This ensures that everyone starts “on equal footing” but forces teams to accelerate wind tunnel research like never before (the power unit is already on the test bench in Maranello as it is allowed).

PRECEDENT – In 2021, Ferrari sacrificed results to prepare for the 2022 revolution, the year in which the concept of “ground effect” cars was reintroduced to F1. The choice made by team principal Mattia Binotto back then was not enough to open a winning cycle. Now, Fred Vasseur’s task is even more challenging because Red Bull has since taken flight, and the red team must show signs of a reaction; it cannot wait for another two years.

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A faster and more consistent car in race pace is needed, one that erases the issues of recent seasons related to excessive tire degradation and a “dancing” aerodynamic balance. Pole positions in qualifying are not enough. What is needed, above all, is a car that instills confidence in Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz, allowing them to fully express their talent. The close competition seen behind Max Verstappen’s Red Bull — with Ferrari, Mercedes, McLaren, and Aston Martin within a few tenths of a second — seems destined to repeat. Another reason why the red team cannot afford to fail. If the advantage of the world champions is reduced, we might witness an even more exciting battle.

DISCUSSIONS – 2024 is a decisive year on other fronts as well. Discussions on the renewal of the Concord Agreement and those on the 2026 regulations require firmness from Ferrari, whose political weight related to the role of a historic Constructor has been felt little in recent seasons. The confusion within the FIA, where only Nicholas Tombazis remains at the technical helm after Steve Nielsen’s departure, necessitates vigilance over the decisions that will be made — becoming architects rather than victims.