Even before the summer break, Frederic Vasseur had his sights set on the races following the Dutch Grand Prix, considering them more favorable to Ferrari’s characteristics. Some, like Fernando Alonso, even believe that between Monza, Baku, and Singapore, the Ferrari will be the car to beat. While positioning the Prancing Horse as the favorite for the home race may seem overly optimistic, there are still several reasons to expect a more competitive Ferrari than what was seen in the Netherlands.
The first reason for hope in Maranello is the arrival at Monza of the third evolutionary package of the 2024 Formula 1 season, the first since the Spanish Grand Prix last June. A key factor for a competitive Ferrari weekend will be ensuring that the on-track behavior of the updates matches the expectations set at the factory. The priority of the new package is to reduce the sensitivity to bouncing that the SF-24 has suffered from since the start of the season, with the problem becoming more acute since the race in Barcelona. Fast corners like Parabolica-Alboreto and Variante Ascari will be crucial in verifying whether the issue is finally under control.
In recent months, the bouncing issues have significantly affected the performance of the Ferrari in fast corners, particularly at Silverstone. At Spa, however, the team used a compromise setup, raising the car to reduce sensitivity to porpoising but sacrificing some aerodynamic downforce from the floor. This negatively impacted overall aerodynamic efficiency, especially on the straights. Eliminating bouncing at Monza would allow Ferrari to regain efficiency and straight-line speed, with the hope of returning to the levels seen at the start of the season when Ferrari excelled in high-speed corners.
Another reason for optimism for Ferrari at Monza is the absence of long, medium-to-low-speed corners. This has been a chronic weakness of the SF-24, exposed by the many hairpins at Zandvoort, particularly the challenging Turn 10. Finally, the Italian Grand Prix returns to a Mediterranean climate, with ambient temperatures expected to exceed 30°C. These conditions are favorable for Ferrari, which has often managed to hit the optimal tire operating window in such weather.
McLaren at 50%
All eyes are on last Sunday’s winners. It couldn’t be otherwise, with Lando Norris managing to pull an average gap of over three-tenths per lap on both Verstappen and Leclerc in the second stint of the race, with uncertainty about how much the British driver was truly pushing to the limit. However, Monza is not Zandvoort, where the hairpins highlighted the high downforce generated by the McLarens at medium-to-low speeds. Additionally, it’s unlikely that the Woking team will find the mild temperatures in Italy that the MCL38 enjoyed in the Netherlands.
The main concern, however, revolves around performance with the low-drag configuration typically used for Monza. Compared to last season, McLaren has made progress in low-drag efficiency, but at Spa, Team Principal Andrea Stella admitted that development in this area was incomplete: “I think we are 50% of the way there. I’m convinced that in high-downforce configuration, the car is well set up and does exactly what we want, especially in terms of aerodynamic behavior. However, we haven’t yet developed much in terms of reducing aerodynamic drag.” McLaren isn’t entering Monza feeling defeated, but it does appear more ‘human’ compared to the dominant performances seen in Budapest and Zandvoort.
Red Bull Uncertainty
On high-efficiency tracks with high-speed corners, like Monza, the world champions’ car remains the one to beat. “If we look at high-speed corners, Red Bull is still by far the best car,” Andrea Stella remarked in Zandvoort. However, the Milton Keynes team is experiencing some confusion, with driving difficulties, balance, and setup issues emerging during the season’s development.
To assess the situation in the Netherlands, the two Red Bulls ran with different configurations, with Perez using the early-season floor and Verstappen the latest version. “The positive thing is that now we understand what’s happening with the car,” noted the Mexican driver. “Now it’s all about how quickly we can solve the problems, but we know what they are and what we’re missing.” Red Bull heads to Monza uncertain about which floor to use, but that’s not the only question. There’s also curiosity about whether a dedicated low-drag aerodynamic package will be brought from Milton Keynes, something that was absent during the previous race in Belgium.
Finally, there’s Mercedes, whose hopes for Monza hinge on the competitiveness shown at Spa and Silverstone, other high-efficiency tracks with plenty of fast corners. However, Toto Wolff isn’t convinced that the disappointing performance at Zandvoort is solely due to the characteristics of the Belgian track. There could be a correlation with the new floor, which is expected to be closely watched during the Italian weekend.
A Completely New Monza
Adding to the uncertainties is the recent resurfacing of the Autodromo, which is still lacking rubber. A rapid evolution of the track is expected over the weekend, with teams needing to adjust balance and downforce levels according to the actual grip levels encountered. Special attention should be given to the curbs, which are lower than in previous years, encouraging teams to stiffen suspension mechanics to enhance the floor’s aerodynamics. The priority will be to make the most of every minute on track, suggesting a weekend worth following closely from the free practice sessions. It’s a Grand Prix that Ferrari doesn’t enter as the favorite, but with plenty of valid reasons to believe in a strong performance.
