Ferrari SF-24 performance analysis: 0.4 gap to updated Red Bull RB20 | 2024 F1 Japanese GP. Ferrari SF-24 performance analysis based on data from the Japanese Grand Prix.

Scuderia Ferrari returns to earth after the amazing weekend at the Albert Park circuit in Melbourne. The SF-24 remains a very good car that, however, has to deal with a deficit in terms of qualifying pace. An imperfect Saturday at the 5.807-kilometre Suzuka International Racing Course because the warm-up process of the Pirelli red-banded tires is inefficient. This factor limits performance since in such a competitive context, accessing the effective performance of the Maranello car was not possible. However, the recovery in the race is tough this time, due to the characteristics of the Suzuka circuit and also the competitiveness of direct opponents, especially McLaren.

Carlos Sainz, solid as always in this start of the season, forcefully takes the podium, his third podium in three races in which he took part. Charles Leclerc chooses and imposes an excellent strategy in the first stint which effectively brings him to the threshold of the podium.

McLaren took a big hit, as did Mercedes and Aston Martin. For the rest, Red Bull’s dominance continues, but this was expected. An updated RB20 with modifications to the floor and inlet perfectly adapts to the beautiful Japanese circuit. Another straightforward Sunday also because, it’s worth noting, this time no one was able to put pressure on them. With a different Saturday, the Prancing Horse could have done it, at least to prevent Max Verstappen from driving with ‘his arm out of the window’. But the championship is still very long. There are still 20 Grands Prix races to be contested and the red team, at the Imola circuit in front of the Tifosi, will bring the first package of updates to get closer to the top.

Before starting our usual analysis of the latest Formula 1 race, we should look back at the summary table of the tire compounds available to the drivers at the start. It also helps us understand the chosen strategies, as there is a very limited number of sets available. For the start, most contenders opted for the Medium tire. Only Fernando Alonso among the top drivers used the Soft tire, to try to gain positions in the early laps. While Lewis Hamilton went for the Hard. At Aston Martin, they can afford it since they have good tire temperature management.

F1 | Japanese GP 2024 | 1st Stint: Charles Leclerc extends with his Ferrari SF-24 on the medium tire

During the red flag, teams had the freedom to choose the tire. Both Ferrari cars decided to mount another brand new set of Medium compound. The Mercedes, on the other hand, opted to use the Hard tire to attempt an overcut on some drivers. In the early laps, Max Verstappen immediately tried to build a safety gap. Carlos Sainz had an overall gap of 9 seconds from the Dutchman in 14 laps, which means the Spaniard lost 6 tenths per lap in the initial phases of the Japanese Grand Prix.

On the yellow-banded Pirelli, the degradation observed was higher than expected, especially during its initial life phase. This aspect pushed the various teams to reconsider all the simulations made ahead of the race, in order to update them with more current data. Overall, there was a higher consumption with very abrasive track surface and rising temperatures. For this reason, the different “tyre models” of the three compounds have been updated.

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Quantifying what has just been said, we confirm that Max Verstappen was once again the benchmark in the race. In the first stint, Sergio Perez was on average 3 tenths slower, helping Max Verstappen to create the safety gap. Carlos Sainz was the third fastest, so already in the first stint, the Ferrari was the second force but running 6 tenths behind the world champion. In terms of degradation, SF-24 and RB20 were at the same level on the medium tire.

F1 | Japanese GP 2024 | 2nd Stint: Carlos Sainz double-stops with the Ferrari SF-24, another set of mediums

At lap 12, Lando Norris, the first of the leading group to pit, comes in. He does so very early to switch to the new white tire. In this way, he blocked Carlos Sainz’s undercut attempt, who was right behind. The Spaniard from Ferrari stopped within the correct pit stop window, so he returned on lap 16. At the exit, he was behind Lando Norris but after a few laps, he managed to find the pace to overtake him. Sergio Perez also pitted on the same lap, opting to use a second set of medium tires. This is because the Red Bull strategists noticed that the Hard compound didn’t perform well on the Mercedes cars of George Russell and Lewis Hamilton.

The choice of the Formula 1 team based in Brackley to use white-banded Pirelli tires for the first stint, on both drivers, was undoubtedly a disastrous choice. A really difficult compound to hit the operating window. After only 18 laps, Lewis Hamilton’s front right tire was already gone. Therefore, everyone tried to avoid it, at least in the first two stints. Obviously, by mounting two sets of mediums in the first two-thirds of the race, there was an obligation to use a different compound, making an additional pit stop. Max Verstappen also pitted on the next lap (17) to switch to mediums.

The two W15 cars even did a second stint on the Hard, using the Medium only in the final part of the Japanese Grand Prix. In the middle part, the hard tire worked better. Looking at the first table summarizing the available sets for the teams, we see that the German team had two new whites and only one medium with no laps behind. This is why they were also “forced” into this strategy. Charles Leclerc, on the other hand, decided to try something alternative and extend the first stint significantly, to be able to push more in the second part of the race.

After the red flag, the Monegasque driver did a lot of tire management in the first part of the stint in order to extend the useful life of the compound as much as possible. However, the pace he maintained in this period wasn’t bad at all, enough to eliminate a pit stop and switch directly to the Hard. This was certainly a great move for Scuderia Ferrari, also considering that at the Suzuka circuit, the pit lane is particularly long, and a lot of time is lost going through it. Charles Leclerc eventually pitted on lap 27 to switch to the Hard tire, taking several laps to warm it up and “activate” it.

Moving on to the numbers, in this case, Charles Leclerc was the fastest, however after extending his race on the starting tire for 26 laps, then being able to make one pit stop less. The Hard tire, however, once it got up to temperature, worked well on the SF-24 car. The Mercedes W15 cars didn’t do badly in this case. In the second stint with the white tires, they perhaps understood a bit better how to exploit them to optimize performance.

F1 | Japanese GP 2024 | 3rd Stint: Ferrari keeps pace with Red Bull

On the same lap as Charles Leclerc’s first pit stop, British driver Lando Norris came in for his second tire change. For the McLaren driver, a set of new Hards was mounted on the McL38 car. With two completely different strategies, from this lap onwards, the two F1 drivers found themselves on equal footing. Both on the harder tire with the same number of laps.

Sergio Perez pits on lap 33 to switch to the Hard tire. Right after, Max Verstappen also pits. The gap between the two narrows at the beginning of the third stint but then remains constant until the end of the Japanese Grand Prix. Carlos Sainz extended his stint by stopping later than the Red Bull drivers. From there onwards, he was the only one to keep up with the pace of the two RB20 cars, thus managing to gain two important positions: one on Lando Norris and especially on his Maranello teammate, which earned him a podium finish at Suzuka.

Looking at the race as a whole, we see that the first of the two Ferrari cars was on average 4 tenths behind the number 1 car. A good result considering the energy profile of the track and the degradation that was experienced by everyone during the race. The Spanish driver had a bit of oversteer in some corners, very slight, but overall, the handling was good. On average, Carlos Sainz was only 1 tenth behind Sergio Perez.

The Red Bull cars, especially the one of Max Verstappen, experienced a bit of understeer at certain points. Lando Norris was also not too far from the RB20 cars, with a gap averaging around 6 tenths per lap compared to the Austrian Formula 1 car, about two tenths behind the Ferrari. It’s surprising to think that Lewis Hamilton overall was at the same level as the Ferrari. Unfortunately for Mercedes, they will regret that first stint on the Hard tire.

Source: Alessandro Arcari and Niccoló Arnerich for FUnoanalisitecnica