Ferrari: SF-23 updates work, but long-term performance remains unpredictable

The performance of Scuderia Ferrari at the Circuit de Catalunya in Montmelo did not meet the expectations regarding the introduction of the first significant update of the 2023 Formula One season produced by the technical area of the Prancing Horse. At least, that’s the feeling among experts who anticipated a step forward in the performance of the Maranello cars.

Formula 1 teaches us that there are no miraculous fixes capable of overcoming structural vulnerabilities of a non-winning technical project. Of course, it was reasonable to expect progress in tire management during the Spanish Grand Prix, a true weakness of the SF-23 highlighted since the first round in Bahrain. The feedback from the drivers has been harsh, especially from Charles, who has been a “passenger” in a car with perpetually different behavior from lap to lap.

It’s a déjà vu: modifications that do not translate into on-track performance as expected based on the simulations. Over the years, the top category of motorsport has changed in the name of ecological and economic sustainability. The introduction of the budget cap does not allow teams to produce an update with discouraging results lightly.

Despite the somber faces of the drivers, however, the engineers at the Scuderia seem satisfied with the path taken in the evolution process of the car. According to Jock Clear, Performance Engineer of the Italian team, the package of solutions introduced in Spain has provided an improvement in race pace. The British engineer also provided an estimate of the progress, around two to three tenths of a second per lap.

Of course, this is an estimate based on the comparison of the performance of the specific base model with the evolved and elaborated one in the virtual context. Moreover, there were no winter tests held on the Spanish circuit, so there was no benchmark in comparison to the base model. According to Ferrari engineer Jock Clear, the return to the original layout of the Circuit de Catalunya has penalized the red cars, as the restoration of the high-speed New Holland corner highlighted the SF-23’s inferiority in high-speed turns.

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And to think that the dreadful chicane between the Europcar and New Holland corners has been the main weakness of many Ferrari cars in the past (especially the SF-90). In short, as has been happening for too long, small factors seem to work against the historic Italian team. However, realistically, can a modification to the track geometry put the race pace of a car in crisis?

Despite legitimate concerns, the former race engineer of Kimi Räikkönen is convinced that the design path taken can provide greater development margins compared to the basic aerodynamic structure, from which further performance probably couldn’t be extracted.

At the same time, he rejects the idea that the new lines of the 2023 car are the result of a natural convergence towards the aerodynamic concept of reference, the winning one used by Red Bull, which is offering many aerodynamic advantages to the reigning world champion team.

Ferrari: Necessary design shift with unpredictable long-term effects
Despite the small steps in the right direction, Jock Clear does not make any strong statements about the competitiveness of the SF-23 in the medium to long term. The engineer from Portsmouth stated that the Maranello technicians are confident in being able to extract the intermittent performance seen in qualifying and translate it to race pace. However, it is currently unpredictable where the chosen path will lead in the long term. This statement is quite worrying in view of 2024 Formula 1 season, as explained by F1 expert Roberto Cecere for the Italian website FUnoanalisitecnica.

The ongoing season could become a long itinerant testing session in the upcoming stages of the championship. Based on these uncertainties, on what foundations is the project for next year taking shape? Through the words of the performance engineer, it seems evident that the technical area of the historic Italian team is navigating without a clear vision, a aspect that is particularly concerning with an eye on the 2024 F1 campaign.

The hope is that the improvement seen in the Spanish circuit becomes increasingly evident thanks to upcoming adjustments. It would be an encouraging sign for the future, especially because the competition (as Mercedes has shown) certainly won’t stand still. For years, the cars from Maranello have significantly grown less compared to their rivals over the course of the season.

Probably the first real target for the Frederic Vasseur-led management is to raise the bar in terms of responsiveness and the ability to evolve a project that has disappointed expectations so far.