The early staging of the Japanese Grand Prix at the Suzuka circuit in the beginning of the 2024 Formula 1 season provides a direct comparison between the 2023 and this year’s cars with – barring rare exceptions – only the winter development separating the two events. The Japanese weekend took place at the end of last F1 campaign, while now we are at the beginning of a long season, with the first development packages already arriving following the work done during the winter break. Compared to Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and the Australian Grand Prix, there is no year of development between the two dates, but only a period where development was already completed for the vast majority of teams.
The value of Red Bull has not changed, remaining ahead of everyone, but above all, Ferrari has once again highlighted the leap in quality made with the SF-24 single-seater. Compared to a few months ago, they have halved the gap to the Milton Keynes team and managed to beat McLaren – even on a strategic level – going from a performance deficit of 20 seconds last year to finishing ahead of McLaren with both cars last weekend. The Suzuka circuit offered several significant insights that confirm all the characteristics highlighted so far of the SF-24: lots of downforce, a consistent platform, and practically optimal tire management on Sundays, but a pace that has to be reviewed on Saturdays.
The data doesn’t lie and Ferrari now believes in SF-24 potential
Last year, one of the constant topics in conversations with those involved in the Ferrari environment was tire degradation and the related problems. This year, the situation has changed significantly. Suzuka, but also Bahrain, were certainly the most challenging tests of this early Formula 1 season, as it required managing tire wear under high stress in all the fast corners, traction zones, and temperatures that varied during the weekend, ranging from 26°C on Friday to readings exceeding 40°C for the race. Despite all these variables, Scuderia Ferrari never showed signs of weakness in terms of tire wear, especially during the race. The SF-23 at the end of last season had already allowed a significant step forward, but nothing comparable to what is being achieved with the SF-24. The data from the Suzuka race tells us that Ferrari was the best car in tire management, especially with the medium compound.
Both Carlos Sainz and Charles Leclerc were able to manage the C2 better even compared to the RB20 cars. While Max Verstappen was able to manage the pace, theoretically consuming less tires, Sergio Perez had to push to secure his final second place in the Japanese Grand Prix. The two drivers of the Prancing Horse had to push even more so to beat Lando Norris but also to keep Mercedes and Aston Martin at bay. In particular, the Monegasque had an impressive first stint, with constantly improving lap times, especially after the rivals’ first pit stop, showing how he and his Ferrari were gentle on the Pirelli tires. During the race, Ferrari switched to a one-stop strategy, which was Plan C, suggested by the Monegasque himself, with the Maranello engineers seeing his pace improve and becoming convinced of this strategy decision.
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Charles Leclerc therefore extended the stint on the Medium tires more than anyone else, allowing himself a single stop at the 5.807-kilometre Suzuka International Racing Course, something that – after some initial thoughts hoping for cooler temperatures before the start of the Japanese weekend – everyone had ruled out due to high degradation. Interestingly, only Kevin Magnussen tried a similar strategy, but not with the same success. However, the track was not particularly friendly to Haas, who still came very close to scoring points, confirming significant progress in terms of tire management, where Ferrari’s new mechanics also gave a big boost to the American team. Ferrari showed the best degradation value on the medium compound, while with the Hards, Red Bull was better. However, the value is heavily influenced by Charles Leclerc’s longer stint management, while Carlos Sainz’s, being shorter, allowed him to push without having to manage, accepting greater degradation.
Ferrari halves the gap from Red Bull: 6 tenths recovered in just 6 months, one tenth per month, thanks to greater load and a truly stable platform.
Many data points make the Suzuka race more positive than a final third and fourth place might suggest. The gap from the RB20 single-seater still exists, and at Suzuka, according to the data, it was about 3.5 tenths, a figure in line with the average of the first races, which was about 3-4 tenths. An important gap, but not enormous, considering the recovery made in just a few months. The Max Verstappen factor should also be taken into consideration, because these gaps from the front are always to be taken with caution, since it is also very complicated for the teams themselves to understand how the Dutchman manages the race from a certain point onwards.
In Japan, compared to the 2023 car, the SF-24 improved by 1.7 seconds, despite the 1.1 seconds gained by the RB20. In just a few months, Ferrari has managed to recover 6 tenths from the Milton Keynes car, certifying the significant and excellent work done in Maranello. Furthermore, looking at the data from the first races as well, Ferrari had already recovered 4 tenths in Bahrain – with a race affected by an imperfect setup of the SF-24 and the wheel corner problem for Charles Leclerc – and half a second in Saudi Arabia, at the Jeddah circuit. This value is even better at Suzuka because the qualities of the SF-24 adapt much better to the Japanese track compared to the SF-23, which had its main weakness in the medium-fast corners, a characteristic that has now turned into strengths.
At Suzuka, there was further confirmation that, in terms of generated aerodynamic load, the SF-24 project is like day and night compared to the previous problematic Ferrari F1 car. There’s much more downforce and, above all, a much more stable aerodynamic platform, which has allowed for a significant improvement in cornering and setup optimization. In the Japanese Grand Prix, Ferrari confirmed itself to be very competitive at medium speeds, recovering there much of the gap it paid compared to Red Bull at high speeds. In Maranello, it will be necessary to work on the execution of the qualifying time to squeeze the potential of the car to the maximum, as ensuring a start on the first or second row can enable them to implement what Frederic Vasseur has said several times, namely to increase the pressure on Red Bull, exploiting, if necessary, any mistakes by the Anglo-Austrian team. Like what happened at the Albert Park circuit in Australia. All of this while pending substantial developments, which could further narrow the performance gap between the SF-24 and the RB20 car.
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