Ferrari Q3 performance analysis: 60% of gap to Red Bull comes from S1

Scuderia Ferrari has tried to work on the first sector of the 5.451-kilometre Shanghai International Circuit in order to improve the performance of the SF-24 car, which was the main limitation on Friday in China. The reasons were related to tire temperature, which was not yet ready when facing the corners of the first sector. The car maintains a generally oversteering characteristic, although this behavior is less evident during a flying lap in dry conditions. The major problem remains the first sector, a limit to further lower the lap time. In general, we could say that there are three factors that have contributed to the final gap against Red Bull on the finish line to varying degrees.

The first two factors are related. We are talking about turns 1-2-3, where braking is combined, and you stay in support for several seconds. This section is essentially tackled by aiming for the first apex of turn 1, then widening the trajectory and approaching the apex of turn 2. The SF-24 single-seater struggles to reach the first apex and between turns 1 and 2, they are forced to widen the trajectory considerably. In fact, there is a lack of downforce compared to Red Bull and generally less lateral grip. Charles Leclerc specified that this particular section was sacrificed with the setup to favor the race on Sunday. The second, more incident factor, is tire temperature, especially on the front axle.

The front-end fails to reach the correct temperature range at the beginning of the lap, resulting in understeer. This is why, as mentioned earlier, the red car fails to hit the first apex. Quantifying the gap in that area, by observing telemetry, the gap that accumulates between turn 1 and 2 the deficit is 0.2 seconds, while the total gap between turn 1 and 3 is a significant 0.360 seconds. After a few meters, the SF-24 starts to gain some traction towards turns 4-5. Charles Leclerc confirmed that Ferrari has made progress in the warm-up strategy of the compound.

For the rest of the track, the red car was not bad at all with good balance. Over the rest of the Shanghai circuit, compared to the Red Bull RB20, the Maranello team lost just over 2 tenths. So, only 60% of the total gap comes from the first 3 corners. In turn 6, there was a change in trajectories, and thus, in approach strategy. If Ferrari tended to widen the line to favor traction, today they followed the ‘classic’ trajectory by hitting the inner apex. Perhaps they had a bit more bouncing in the section of turns 7-8, so they lowered the rear of the car by one point, considering the presence of a bump.

Scuderia Ferrari has improved in turns 9-10, where the rear was somewhat limited yesterday due to the preceding section of medium-fast corners. The third factor that influenced was the unpredictability of the track, but this is true for everyone. Only in Q3 was it slower by 2 tenths, and the wind was also bothersome. Red Bull also felt it. The rear became more unstable, a factor that emerged especially in the first attempt of Q3. In the third sector, there was also a snap in the traction phase at turn 13. Max Verstappen, in fact, on the radio, had opened up saying that the balance was good but worse than Q1-Q2, indicating a strange behavior.

F1: Ferrari SF-24 insufficient tire activation in S1

Looking at the micro-sectors, let’s try to understand better where the gap between the two cars specifically lies: Red Bull vs Ferrari. We see that the main straight is entirely territory of the RB20 single-seater, as well as turn 1. The SF-24, widening a lot at this point, does have a good advantage in the confined section of turn 2, but in the overall balance, this factor doesn’t pay off at all. At turn 6, it’s again the field for Red Bull, although we see that in the slower sections where downforce is needed, the red car has a more than satisfactory balance.

Even in the turn 9-10 area, the Ferrari drivers manage to find a good line and in this case, a precise balance between the two axes. Turn 12-13 is still in favor of the two RB20 cars, which manage to find a lot of traction unlike the cars with the Prancing Horse on them. Where a lot of lateral grip is needed at low speeds, the Ferrari tends to lose something. The long straight of the third sector is always dominated by the blue racing cars, but at the braking point of 14, the red car still manages to find a lot of longitudinal grip, a characteristic that we have seen several times this year.

In terms of speed, indeed the Red Bull RB20 is at the top even in this distinctive section. Not surprisingly, the cars leading the championship have the best micro-sectors along the straights. Excellent aerodynamic efficiency considering that the larger frontal area of the rear wing, when open, significantly reduces the resistance to the advancement of the Austrian car. Also, the McLaren cars are excellent in this regard. In general, they have suffered from oversteer a lot, a factor that could present itself very negatively in the race tomorrow, over the long distance.

In the Sprint Race, indeed, the two papaya-colored cars suffered a lot from rear degradation. A car, therefore, more optimized for qualifying with which, however, they think they can defend well even during the Chinese Grand Prix. This is if the degradation is not excessive compared to direct competitors, namely the Ferrari cars.

Assessing the comparison of micro-sectors among all teams, we notice that George Russell’s Mercedes potentially could have done better than eighth place on the grid. The W15 car was very fast in several parts of the track. Turns 3-4-5 saw performance optimization, precisely where the two cars generally had different problems. Even outside of turn 6 and in the stretch between 10 and 11, they were very competitive. However, they did not optimize the lap when it was needed.

Fernando Alonso did it instead, perhaps the biggest surprise in the qualifying session that took place earlier today. Observing the onboard footage, his Aston Martin AMR24 did not have as solid a balance as other cars. Additionally, he made a mistake at the entry of turn 1, missing the apex and making a small error. However, he continued, and in turn 3, he set the best split time. Overall, in in the first sector, he was the second-best driver, obviously behind Max Verstappen. Fernando Alonso then optimized the second and the third sector as well, remaining on par with the McLarens.