Pirelli expects a one-stop strategy to be the most likely approach for the 2026 United States Grand Prix at the Circuit of the Americas, although the low tyre degradation observed in Austin has also opened the door to alternative combinations using the soft and medium compounds. According to Pirelli Motorsport director Dario Marrafuschi, a two-stop soft-medium-soft strategy could become competitive if degradation increases even slightly, while an early Safety Car could make the hard compound particularly valuable.
The soft and medium tyres appear set to play a leading role in Austin, judging by the degradation levels recorded throughout the Formula 1 weekend. Data gathered on Friday and Saturday suggests that teams should be able to complete the race with a single pit stop, with medium-hard and soft-hard emerging as the leading combinations. However, the relatively limited wear experienced by the softer compounds means that other options cannot be ruled out.
United States GP tyre strategy: Why Pirelli favours a one-stop race
Dario Marrafuschi, Pirelli Motorsport director, explained: “The data collected during free practice shows that some teams also completed long stints on the soft tyres. Their degradation was acceptable, almost in line with that of the mediums. Therefore, considering the combination of performance and degradation, I personally believe that the medium and soft will be the two preferred compounds for the race.”
He continued: “In fact, according to our calculations, the one-stop strategies using medium-hard or soft-hard combinations are the most likely and are the favourites. However, considering the drivers’ impressions and the feedback we have received, my personal opinion is that the soft-medium combination could also be a viable option. Different sequences involving the medium and soft are possible.”
The outlook depends on whether the relatively low tyre degradation recorded during practice continues into the Grand Prix. The tyre degradation concerns previously identified by Pirelli in Austin remain relevant as teams evaluate the balance between performance, tyre life and the number of pit stops.
Dario Marrafuschi added: “That, of course, is if the degradation levels observed today on the soft and medium tyres turn out to be slightly higher than those recorded so far. Personally, however, I don’t think that will happen, because tomorrow temperatures will be slightly lower than today. Consequently, I don’t expect a significant increase in degradation.”
Soft tyres could offer an advantage at the start in Austin
Alongside tyre wear over the race distance, teams must consider the grip provided by the two softer compounds at the start. At Austin, the C4 soft tyres are expected to deliver significantly more grip than the C3 mediums, potentially making them attractive to drivers seeking to gain positions during the opening lap.
This could make the red-marked soft compound a particularly interesting choice for those prepared to prioritise their initial launch and early-race performance over the potentially greater flexibility of starting on mediums. The decision will depend on how teams assess the relationship between initial grip, stint length and the degradation expected under race conditions.
For Ferrari, the strategic choice will be another consideration following Charles Leclerc’s encouraging performance during Austin practice, with the team assessing how best to translate its pace into a competitive Grand Prix result.
Two-stop soft-medium-soft strategy if degradation increases
Temperatures for the race are forecast to be slightly lower than those experienced the previous day. Nevertheless, if tyre degradation proves higher than expected, a two-stop strategy could become a serious alternative to the preferred one-stop approach.
Under those circumstances, the hard compound would probably be excluded from consideration, with a soft-medium-soft sequence becoming the preferred option.
Dario Marrafuschi explained: “If degradation were higher than initially expected, the two-stop strategy with a soft-medium-soft sequence would become a realistic option.”
He added: “According to our calculations, this strategy involves a difference of just two seconds over the entire race distance. Therefore, even a slight increase in degradation on the soft compound would be enough to easily push teams towards a two-stop strategy.”
The relatively small calculated difference means that the choice between one and two stops may depend on how tyre behaviour develops during the race. Teams will need to monitor the condition of their tyres carefully, particularly if the soft compound begins to lose performance more rapidly than anticipated.
Compound choices and stint lengths can also be explored using the ScuderiaFans F1 Tyre & Stint Analysis, which provides a way to compare tyre usage and race strategies.
Why an early Safety Car could make the hard tyres decisive
An early neutralisation or Safety Car period cannot be ruled out at the Circuit of the Americas. In that scenario, the hard compound could play an important strategic role, allowing drivers to complete their mandatory pit stop early while relying on the durability of the C2 tyres for a long final stint.
Dario Marrafuschi said: “As far as the hard tyres are concerned, I believe the medium-hard and soft-hard combinations represent an excellent solution if the race is neutralised in its early stages.”
He continued: “If you are forced to make an early stop because of a neutralisation, you can fit a set of hard tyres and count on good performance and consistency for the rest of the race. Covering a substantial part of the distance on these tyres will not be a problem. Therefore, I think you can start on either the soft or medium tyres and, in the event of a neutralisation, switch to the hard.”
However, the preferred approach could change if the Grand Prix proceeds without interruptions.
“If the race proceeds normally, you can opt for the medium and soft tyres. It would probably be better to avoid the hard compound because degradation should remain limited,” Dario Marrafuschi explained.
Tyre warm-up and the undercut could influence Austin pit-stop decisions
Drivers who choose, or are forced, to make an earlier-than-planned pit stop will also need to pay attention to how quickly their new tyres reach the correct operating temperature. This will be particularly important when evaluating the potential advantage of an undercut against cars remaining on track.
Dario Marrafuschi explained: “With the hard tyres, you can push right from the start. With the soft tyres, on the other hand, it is always wise to be careful during the opening laps. That is precisely why, when comparing the two compounds, the difference in the undercut is not as large as it might seem.”
He concluded: “In qualifying, the gap between the hard and soft tyres is around one and a half seconds. In the race, however, the difference in the undercut is around one second: if you fit the soft tyres, the advantage can reach 2.5 seconds, but not three, because you have to be a little more cautious on the first lap.”
The combination of limited tyre degradation, different warm-up characteristics and the possibility of a Safety Car leaves teams with several credible strategic choices. While Pirelli’s calculations favour a one-stop race, even a relatively small change in tyre behaviour could make a two-stop approach competitive at the United States Grand Prix.
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