According to Pirelli’s predictions, a double pit stop strategy is likely. The fastest approach should involve starting with soft tires before switching to hard tires and concluding with another set of soft tires. In this case, the pit stop windows range from the thirteenth to the nineteenth lap and from the thirty-seventh to the forty-third lap.
An alternative could be to start with soft tires and then switch twice to hard tires. In this scenario, the pit stop windows would be advanced by a few laps, between the eleventh and sixteenth laps and between the thirty-third and thirty-ninth laps.
The third possibility in the hands of the teams involves starting on soft tires, then transitioning to hard tires and finally a double set of soft tires. In this case, the pit stop windows would be between the fourth and fourteenth laps, between the twenty-seventh and thirty-third laps, and between the fortieth and forty-sixth laps.
For this weekend, Pirelli has also considered a fourth possibility for the teams. In this case, after starting on soft tires, there would be a transition to another set of soft tires and then to the medium tires. In this case, the pit stop windows would be between the fifteenth and twentieth laps and between the thirty-fifth and fortieth laps. It’s worth noting that for the first weekend of the year, Pirelli has chosen to bring the C1 hard, C2 medium, and C3 soft compounds to the track. The following are the sets of tires still available to the teams:
The 57 laps scheduled for today’s race at the Sakhir circuit will answer many questions. On the ‘strategy’ front, however, there don’t seem to be many doubts; the choices of the teams starting in the top positions appear quite clear.
There is one variable that differentiates the two Red Bulls from Ferrari, Mercedes, McLaren, and Aston Martin, and that is the choice of new sets preserved for the race. Max Verstappen and Sergio Perez have saved a set of soft tires, opting to use a set of hard tires in FP3, and everything suggests that (as in 2023) the reigning world champion team will start with a set of new soft tires before transitioning to the hard ones and finishing the third stint with one of the soft tire sets used in qualifying.
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The Red Bull strategy carries only one risk, in case the safety car enters the track around the 30th lap. In that scenario, the alternative would be to use a set of medium tires, a compound that has been discarded by all teams so far. For the other top teams, the choice to cover the 57 laps of the race will be soft-hard-hard. According to Pirelli simulations with this tire availability, the first pit stop is expected in the window between the 11th and 16th laps, while the second stop is anticipated between the 33rd and 39th laps. Red Bull will need to extend the first stint a bit, with the pit stop expected between the 13th and 19th laps, switching to hard tires and mounting the final set of soft tires between the 37th and 43rd laps.
There is also the possibility that Red Bull decides to use two sets of soft tires in sequence and then conclude the race with the hard ones; much will depend on the performance of the first stint, probably the most strategic part of the Grand Prix. Verstappen will try to exploit the advantage of the new set of soft tires, especially considering Red Bull’s good performance with the C3 compound, which proved superior in long runs compared to all competitors.
For Ferrari, it will be crucial to limit the damage in the initial phase, hoping for good competitiveness with the hard tires, as seen in the tests. Both Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz will have to contain the gap from Max but at the same time be wary of Mercedes, which appeared fast in race simulations. Yesterday, both Lewis Hamilton and George Russell confirmed setup choices aimed at the race, another element that increases interest in the first race of the 2024 Formula One season.
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