F1 Japan GP preview: impact of tire wear, updates, weather and key strengths of RB20, SF-24 and MCL38. F1 Japan GP preview and impact of key factors at Suzuka.

In Japan, at the 5.807-kilometre Suzuka International Racing Course, Formula 1 racing resumes two weeks after Scuderia Ferrari’s stunning one-two finish in the Australian Grand Prix, which was also facilitated by Max Verstappen’s retirement due to brake disk problems. However, the impression is that even with the world champion in the race at the Albert Park circuit in Melbourne, the Maranello team still had the potential to challenge Red Bull on equal terms, as the Austrian side was struggling with tire graining. Although it seems unlikely that the Milton Keynes team will make the same mistakes this weekend at Suzuka, Ferrari remains a credible candidate for victory, provided it interprets the numerous variables of the Japanese track to the best of its ability.

The Dominance of 2023

Suzuka is a circuit dominated by high-speed corners, many of which range between 200 and 250 kilometers per hour. The Japanese track is one of those that most reward aerodynamic efficiency, understood as the ability to generate a high aerodynamic load at the cost of low straight-line resistance, so as not to be penalized on the main straight and the long return straight. These characteristics unfortunately made the Suzuka circuit the ideal hunting ground for Red Bull last season, boasting a huge efficiency advantage over its rivals.

The world champions capitalized on the opportunity by fine-tuning the car setup, with Max Verstappen who was able to inflict 6 and 7 tenths in the qualifying session respectively on McLaren and Scuderia Ferrari. The race then saw one of the most clear-cut victories of the entire 2023 Formula 1 season, also thanks to the ability to lift off in the fastest corners, finishing 20 seconds ahead of Lando Norris and 40 seconds ahead of the Ferrari of Charles Leclerc. This precedent shows how Red Bull has a good knowledge of the track, which also fits well with the characteristics of the RB20 single-seater, whose basic concept is an evolution of last season’s. However, the Maranello team is not discouraged by the verdict of the last edition, aware that at the time, the fast corners were the main weakness of the SF-23 car, while now they are one of the strengths of the new F1 project.

Tire Degradation Takes Center Stage

A distinctive feature of Suzuka is the snake-like first sector, where for 2 kilometers the steering wheel hardly ever returns to the resting position. It’s easy to understand the level of stress on the Pirelli tires, which are subjected to high lateral, longitudinal, and vertical energies in the corners. The track’s unique figure-eight layout also means that the corners are evenly distributed, with 10 to the right and 8 to the left, stressing tires on both sides. It is no coincidence that Pirelli brings the hardest compounds in its range, C1, C2, and C3, the opposite of what was seen two weeks ago at the Albert Park circuit in Melbourne.

At Suzuka, tire degradation returns to the spotlight, where Ferrari has shown improvement compared to the past. From this perspective, Japan will quantify the exact positioning relative to rivals Red Bull. The good race pace seen in Australia, where thermal tire deterioration was not the limiting factor, but rather wear due to graining, should not be misleading. The only race so far where pace was limited by degradation was the season opener at the Bahrain International Circuit in Sakhir. At that time, Carlos Sainz was running 6 tenths slower than Max Verstappen, but the Ferrari driver was slowed down by a brake issue, not to mention that the cars were still in an initial state in terms of setup. Unlike the Japanese circuit, moreover, the Sakhir one was particularly challenging for the rear axle, making it a precedent that is not very comparable, just like Melbourne.

Red Bull’s Blunted Weapon

Suzuka has lower average lap speeds compared to the last races, with 235 kilometers per hour versus the 250 kilometers per hour of Jeddah and Melbourne, a difference that pushes teams to load up on aerodynamics. In Japan, the most aerodynamically loaded configurations since the beginning of the year will be used, a non-negligible variable, suggesting close attention to how the performance of the individual cars changes. Moreover, it’s unlikely Ferrari will mount a rear wing with more downforce than the competition again, as it did in the last races, a choice dictated by balance reasons but detrimental in terms of straight-line speed. The Japanese circuit is also one of the few tracks in the Formula 1 championship with only one drag reduction system activation zone, a significant strength of the Red Bull car, limiting its qualifying advantage.

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The Braking

If at Suzuka the world champions are without one of their aces up their sleeve, Ferrari is in a similar position. So far, the Italian side has shown to be particularly sharp in braking, an area, however, less relevant this weekend in Japan, as evidenced by the fact that Brembo rates the track with an index of 1 out of 5 regarding the braking system, with the lowest wear of the year. If at the Albert Park circuit in Melbourne, in three braking points, decelerations of 4.7 g were reached, this time at Suzuka, the most demanding braking points are 4, 4.2, and 4.5 g, dulling one of the Ferrari main strengths.

Updates

The balance of power will also be affected by new parts arriving on the cars. The introduction of significant new features for Max Verstappen’s and Sergio Perez’s RB20 is almost certain, while no significant changes are expected for Scuderia Ferrari, except for a small rear suspension update which is mainly track related. However, the two weeks of work back in Maranello since Melbourne, during which development has continued in the form of data analysis and setup adjustments, should not be overlooked.

Weather

A significant change from the past is the holding of the Grand Prix in spring, with temperatures cooler by more than 10°C, which could mean 15-20°C less on the asphalt. The cooler conditions will significantly affect the balance of the cars and tire degradation, devaluing the data from past editions and urging teams to make the most of every minute of the free two free practice sessions. Additionally, there’s a high risk of rain for the weekend, particularly on Sunday. Regardless of whether the rain actually arrives or not, the weather will influence the entire weekend, bringing with it wide temperature variations and especially forcing teams to gamble on a setup with a level of load more suited to dry or wet conditions. Therefore, another variable to interpret as best as possible.

Eye on Qualifying

Overall, the eve of the race sees Red Bull and Verstappen in a strong position to redeem themselves from the misstep in Melbourne, as the Austrian side is able to rely on immense aerodynamic efficiency, excellent management of tire degradation, and a circuit that will limit the RB20’s braking delay. In contrast, Ferrari can leverage the weather variable and the competitiveness in fast corners expressed so far by the SF-24, a car that continues to improve race by race.

Moreover, at the Suzuka circuit, overtaking is possible but not easy, placing great emphasis on the qualifying session. In all first three Grands Prix that took place so far this season, the Prancing Horse has shown the potential to contest the pole position with Max Verstappen, perhaps paying for an imperfect execution by team and drivers at the crucial moment of qualifying, in Q3. Without mistakes, Ferrari has the credentials to aim for pole position and from there try to find ways to defend against the faster Red Bull and fight for the victory, also exploiting the limited use of the drag reduction system that Red Bull will be able to count on. Lastly, but importantly, the return of the hardest compounds from the Pirelli range will make it less complex to extract the peak grip from the tire on a single lap, an aspect where so far the Prancing Horse has struggled more compared to its rivals.

The Pursuers

In the Australian Grand Prix, Lando Norris and McLaren finished just a few seconds behind the winning Ferrari, raising expectations for this weekend’s Japan Grand Prix. However, it seems unlikely that the Woking team can repeat the same performance at Suzuka, a track with numerous long-duration corners where the MCL38 car still suffers from instability issues. The downforce generated in high-speed bends places McLaren in the position to contest the role of third force with Fernando Alonso’s Aston Martin. Prospects are less encouraging for Mercedes, held back by a car that is lacking and unpredictable in high-speed corners. The hope in Brackley is that at least the milder temperatures will help find the optimal operating window and revive the W15 car.