We witnessed a Ferrari regression, overtaken in terms of performance in China by McLaren, even though neither team brought technical upgrades to Shanghai. In the Sprint Race, the Ferraris managed to outpace Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri’s MCL38s, while in the Grand Prix, the SF-24s never had the pace to trouble the Englishman’s papaya-colored car, who finished second.
The Scuderia did not meet the expectations of the eve, as even Ferrari enthusiasts suggested not only a competitive car but also one capable, perhaps, of getting closer to the Red Bulls. The operation succeeded for McLaren, and for the first time in the season, a Ferrari did not reach the podium.
The question to ask is rather simple: what happened to the SF-24s between the Saturday morning sprint event and the afternoon qualifying session? Ferrari lost competitiveness between the Sprint event and the GP, at least in direct comparison with McLaren (Oscar Piastri, less brilliant than usual, would have commonly finished ahead of the Ferraris if he had not fallen victim to Lance Stroll’s strike during the restart from the first safety car).
And Lando Norris himself said after the race that he was surprised to have been clearly ahead of the Ferraris since he imagined deep down to be overtaken by the SF-24 (he mentioned seeing a 35″ gap in simulations!). Not only was he ahead of Leclerc and Sainz, but he also left Sergio Perez with the other Red Bull RB20 behind him.
Therefore, some may argue that McLaren has improved and Lando has contributed to bringing out the best in the orange cars, but the analysis would not be complete if we did not look at why the red cars did not extract all the potential they had available.
The feeling is that when the parc fermé reopened, the technicians followed the drivers’ indications that they had complained during the Sprint Race of not having, when they were in a train, the necessary speed to attempt a pass with the DRS. And there is a suspicion that there was a temptation to change the setup to slightly unload the red car, perhaps not having taken into account that with the hard compound, in particular, the SF-24 cars would have struggled, failing to bring the necessary energy to get the tires into the right temperature window.
In Maranello, therefore, they took a risk that did not pay off, so Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz had to build a race that was played on the defensive: at the start, but generally at every restart from the Safety Car, we saw the red cars struggle to immediately find the right pace. The fact that Charles Leclerc ended up making the pit stop (lap 21) outside the window recommended by Pirelli, to go for a one-stop race (with the mediums, he would have gone longer if there hadn’t been the neutralization for Valtteri Bottas’s stop with the smoking Ferrari power unit on the Sauber C44) certainly exacerbated the problem, having to use a set of whites for 35 laps.
It is possible, therefore, that the Maranello team did not manage to extract the best from the SF-24, but it is equally true that it is now time to start the evolution of the red car, anticipating in Miami some elements of the update package that were announced for Imola.
Red Bull, Aston Martin, but also Haas, Alpine, Sauber, and Racing Bulls have already brought important innovations, not just details. McLaren will change its face in Miami, while Ferrari and Mercedes were waiting for the European debut to introduce the updates.
The slip to third place in China has been filed as a slip-up and not a sign of a change in technical values. Hopefully that is indeed the case.
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