F1, Ferrari: why Constructors title may not be a mirage in 2024. There's a chance Ferrari could contend for the Constructor's Championship.

If Ferrari stays close to Red Bull in performance, there’s a chance they could contend for the Constructor’s Championship. With Sergio Perez not performing at a high level, Max Verstappen alone might not be enough for Red Bull to secure the team title.

As engineers sift through the mountain of data from the Bahrain tests, it’s time to evaluate the insights gained from the three days in Sakhir. While awaiting the official rankings, there are estimations and assumptions, creating an indicative but undefined scenario. Some aspects, however, are clearer, particularly within the Red Bull-Ferrari domain, presenting distant situations. Let’s talk about drivers. On paper, Red Bull should have been in a better position, considering Ferrari, after Lewis Hamilton’s announcement, is poised to compete with a driver already aware of bidding farewell at the end of the season.

However, what emerged from the three days of testing seems to be the opposite. One of the positive outcomes the tests brought to the Scuderia’s garage is the neutral behavior of the SF-24, aligning well with the driving styles of both Carlos Sainz and Chales Leclerc. A sigh of relief for the engineers, as the 2022 season (which started with excellent results) saw Sainz struggling, forced to adapt his driving to the F1-75, significantly impacting the first third of the season. Having a neutral car allows Ferrari to start without issues related to one of its drivers’ adaptation. All energies will be focused on fine-tuning.

The scenario is very different in the Red Bull garage. Max Verstappen is still himself, impressive in speed both in terms of performance and adaptability, practically a cyberman in performance consistency. Perez, on the other hand, is in another world; in his hands, the RB20 becomes a good car and nothing more, a script seen last year. The hope of finding a ‘Checo’ capable of resetting everything during the winter and starting fresh for a new season with a new car remains just that. On Thursday evening, the Mexican walked slowly between the hospitality and the box with a somber face and slow pace.

“He has to get Max out of his head and manage his own program,” confirmed Helmut Marko, few words that say a lot. When a Red Bull driver is in trouble, they navigate very dangerous waters because, in addition to specific problems, there’s also the fear of Marko’s famous ‘swap,’ an invitation to join Racing Bulls to make room for the promoted one. Additionally, Perez is nearing the end of his contract, forcing him to explore the market (some are already doing it for him) to consider alternative offers.

If the early-season races present a better Perez than the one seen in testing (six tenths off Max’s lap time), the problem might be resolved. Conversely, even in the season’s economy, a ‘Checo’ far from Max could be a problem for the team’s objectives. Last year, Verstappen alone was sufficient for Red Bull to win the Constructors’ Championship, as the 575 points earned by the Dutchman far surpassed the final tallies of Mercedes (409) and Ferrari (406).

However, it’s not guaranteed that the RB20, as good as it is, will match its predecessor. If, as it seems, Ferrari is currently trailing by 3 tenths, with Mercedes following suit, Red Bull might need a good haul of points from the second driver as well. Ferrari appears to have more certainty about its duo’s performance. After receiving the pink slip, Carlos Sainz found himself at a crossroads: succumb to depression and prepare for a season as the divorced one at home or try to confirm on the field who he is and what he can do. From what was seen in Bahrain, he seems to have decisively chosen the latter, and beyond the team’s objectives, for Carlos, the 2024 season could be a business card to showcase to those who will bet on him in the future.