While the 2024 Formula 1 season might see the same twenty drivers who raced in the last championship without much movement between teams, 2025 is expected to bring a significant market shakeup, with 15 drivers facing expiring contracts. Many negotiations have already begun, some are nearing completion like those within the Ferrari team, while others will have to wait for the first part of the new championship to unfold. Alonso and Perez dramas are expected, but attention should also be paid to the Alpine and Sauber markets, with Sauber set to become Audi in 2026.
After a season of great stability, 2024 will witness drivers, team principals, managers, and lawyers at the center of a market that promises to be of significant magnitude. Among the twenty drivers who will be starting in the Bahrain Grand Prix in just over two months, only five have contracts securing their presence in the 2025 championship. As is customary in Formula 1, many negotiations have already started; playing ahead has become a must for top teams.
Market moves that escape rumors are increasingly rare, the latest being Fernando Alonso’s move from Alpine to Aston Martin. For the most part, everything is widely announced, with the only variable being the duration of the agreement. Ferrari, for instance, will announce the contract extensions for Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz in the coming weeks, extensions planned long ago but with timelines extended due to contract duration and remuneration issues. These are normal negotiations where each party tries to assert its position.
Part of the stability is sought after; the approach of the current generation of team principals is to take as few risks as possible. A wrong decision could jeopardize a rewarding and well-paid position. If there are no critical issues necessitating a change, it’s better to continue on a safe and familiar path. However, other factors significantly influence a stagnant market that lacks dramatic developments. Today, the most coveted driver, Verstappen, is in the most competitive team and is also bound by a contract expiring at the end of 2028. Max has no technical or financial reasons to change teams, having earned over 70 million euros in 2023 between salary and performance-related bonuses. His relationship with Red Bull is airtight, devoid of cracks for rivals to exploit.
Mismatched timing among Mercedes, Ferrari, and McLaren
Another variable contributing to the market’s lack of excitement is the renewal timing that sees Mercedes and Ferrari misaligned. Lewis Hamilton and George Russell were confirmed at the end of last August, an extension announced long ago because there were no real alternatives for both parties to change teams in 2024. The same scenario has now shifted to Maranello, with Leclerc and Sainz having no better options than Ferrari and the Scuderia lacking alternatives on the market that can guarantee progress.
In addition to Verstappen and the Mercedes duo, the group of drivers holding contracts for 2025 includes the Piastri-Norris pair. The scenario would have been different if the contract timelines of these drivers had coincided with those of the two Ferrari drivers, offering the possibility to consider other solutions. In practice, we are now facing marriages that fit well but are also somewhat forced, and it will remain so until someone decides to break the current contracts prematurely. It’s difficult but not impossible, as shown by the Ricciardo-McLaren case. Some agreements have performance clauses (to protect both drivers and teams) that can bring an end to a partnership earlier than expected. This topic emerged at the beginning of last summer when McLaren was struggling in the Constructors’ Championship. The excellent evolution of the MCL60 then brought results and certainty that there would be no surprises.
Perez and Alonso will be the first talking points
With Mercedes, McLaren, and Ferrari essentially off the market, one of the talking points in 2024 will be Sergio Perez’s future. Many in the paddock now consider the Mexican outside Red Bull’s plans, but ‘Checo’ will have the chance to respond on the track in the first races of the next season. Helmut Marko and Christian Horner will monitor Perez’s performance and at the same time, what will emerge from the Tsunoda-Ricciardo duo, but internal choices (once a ‘must’) are no longer as straightforward. In this case as well, considering that all the top drivers will be settled by late spring, the choice (if necessary) will likely fall on a young driver or someone with a decent track record.
The situation is different at Aston Martin, as Fernando Alonso will turn 43 next July. In this case, an alternative choice will surely be considered, and then the track will indicate the direction. If Alonso’s performance is consistent with what was seen in 2023, Fernando may secure a last annual renewal, unless he himself decides that the time has come for a definitive stop. Alpine must also be active in the market, with both drivers’ contracts expiring. Pierre Gasly’s position seems more secure than Esteban Ocon’s, who has long shown mutual interest in Sauber.
The wildcard Albon will be at the center of the market
For Alpine and Aston Martin, the first name on the list of potentials is Alexander Albon, who will find himself in the enviable position of being able to consider various opportunities, including a possible return to Red Bull. It would be another comeback called from a distance by Marko, but Albon has not forgotten the treatment he received at the end of 2020 when he was shown the door without even the possibility of taking refuge in AlphaTauri.
Unlike other previous cases, for Alex, a potential call from Red Bull would not be the only chance to race in Formula 1, so the response would be far from straightforward. For Sauber, in addition to Ocon, there is the candidacy of Nico Hulkenberg, one of the names emerging to shape the Audi era. Although it is a project with great ambitions and financial potential, aiming for the most sought-after drivers will not be easy (at least in the early stages).
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