F1 | Driver Market: all confirmed for 2024, an unprecedented situation in F1 history!. F1 | Driver Market: all confirmed for 2024 season.

In 2024, we will see the same twenty drivers who are currently competing in this championship. There’s only one confirmation pending from Sargeant, who is finalizing his renewal. Finding an unchanged grid from one year to the next is unprecedented in the 74 editions of the world championship. Let’s delve into the reasons behind this stability, often attributed to lengthy contracts. Hamilton will embark on his 13th season with Mercedes next year, while Verstappen will enter his ninth.

The only confirmation left is the name of the driver who will occupy the second Williams seat. Once Logan Sargeant’s agreement with Williams is renewed (negotiations seem to be heading in that direction), an unprecedented scenario in the entire history of Formula 1 will take shape: all team/driver pairings that conclude the 2023 season will reappear on the grid in 2024.

This level of stability has no precedent in the 74 editions of the Formula 1 World Championship. The reasons behind this phenomenon are the subject of analysis within the paddock. Are we witnessing a mere coincidence or a trend?

The confirmation of all twenty drivers is likely a result of both factors. In recent years, teams have leaned towards a risk-averse and conservative approach. Every decision carries a margin of error, which often deters those at the helm of teams, whether they are CEOs or team principals. Managerial approaches tend to minimize decisions that could prove counterproductive. However, there are other factors contributing to this scenario, some obvious and others more concealed, resulting from policies that have become increasingly extreme over time.

“Don’t change a winning combination”
In 2024, Lewis Hamilton will compete in his twelfth season with Mercedes, and Max Verstappen will mark his ninth season with Red Bull. In both cases, the partnership with their respective teams has been solidified by the most potent adhesive: success.

Six world titles in Hamilton’s case, almost three in Max’s case, provide compelling reasons not to seek alternatives. Their decisions, in fact, are almost obligatory to avoid taking a step backward. With the contracts they’ve signed this season, Lewis will have at least thirteen seasons with Mercedes, the same number Max will achieve when his agreement with Red Bull concludes at the end of 2028.

One of the effects of these long-term contracts is that they close the door to new candidates. When two top teams find themselves outside the market (at least concerning the role of the leading driver), opportunities decrease dramatically, especially for those aspiring to a championship-winning car.

In the absence of growth opportunities, many drivers are forced to stay where they are, hoping for better times. This is the case with Lando Norris, a driver who would have been highly sought after in an open market but currently finds himself essentially obliged to wait for McLaren to improve its performance and aim for his first Formula 1 victory. This holds true until the end of the 2025 season when his current contract expires.

Driver Contracts: Long-term Relationships

* In two cycles

** To be confirmed

 

The new ‘must’ in the era of the budget cap is quality.

“No more just having the money.” For many years, the impression that a place on the Formula 1 grid could be obtained through financial transactions was supported by several real cases. The first major step towards greater meritocracy was taken in 2015 with the introduction of the points system for granting the Super License necessary to access Formula 1.

This change was initiated by then-FIA President Jean Todt with the aim of putting a stop to the arrival in the paddock of unlikely drivers ready to exploit teams’ financial difficulties. However, another goal remained, which was achieved after the Covid period.

The introduction of the Budget Cap has exponentially increased the value of teams in Formula 1, and the commercial success achieved by Liberty Media has increased the revenues allocated to the teams.

Financial independence, a status also achieved by teams in the lower half of the grid, has allowed these teams not to depend on financial support guaranteed by the drivers, leading to the ability to choose who sits behind the wheel of their cars based not only on financial contribution but also on quality. This new scenario has almost entirely eliminated the nominations of lower-tier drivers who were previously present for one or two seasons before moving on to other pursuits. Today, choices are primarily directed towards quality, a requirement that has also led to greater stability in driver-team relationships and fewer criticisms from teams toward their drivers.

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The Dwindling Talent Pool
Alongside the Super License, the FIA aimed to make the path that young drivers must take to aspire to Formula 1 more transparent, but quality raw material is also required. While in 2018, the top three drivers in the Formula 2 championship were George Russell, Lando Norris, and Alexander Albon, in recent years, the levels of drivers proposed have not been deemed interesting by Formula 1 teams. There was one exception, Oscar Piastri, a case that demonstrates how, when a quality path is offered, the Formula 1 paddock takes notice.

The bar has been raised significantly, and today, winning is not enough; it needs to be achieved in a short time. In a Formula 1 without testing, the candidacy of a young driver who took two seasons to make an impact in the feeder series is already a subject of reflection. Faced with less stellar careers than Piastri’s, team principals’ approach is very cautious.

Lack of testing opportunities means that a team is unlikely to assign one of its cars to a rookie who, at least on paper, does not come with top credentials. A “sure thing” is preferred over the risk of dealing with a young driver who must pay the price for inexperience. This aspect contributes to overall stability.

Drivers Locked in by Long-Term Contracts
When Red Bull officially extended Verstappen’s contract until the end of the 2028 season on March 3 of last year, it took many by surprise. However, this was not the first case of decidedly long-term agreements, as Ferrari offered Leclerc a five-season contract at the end of 2019.

This trend is not driven by driver demands but by the desire of top teams to protect themselves from the possibility of losing an asset of absolute value should they go through a difficult technical cycle, as Ferrari experienced in the 2020/2021 period.

Even young drivers who come from “junior” programs are bound for at least three seasons when they make their debut in the top formula. This is the price they pay to a team that has invested in supporting their careers in the feeder categories.

In Oscar Piastri’s case, he managed to astonishingly extricate himself from Alpine last year after the team missed the deadline to secure him a seat as a full-time driver for the 2023 season.

McLaren, the team Oscar Piastri then debuted with, secured its position with an option exercised two weeks later, ensuring the presence of the Australian driver until the end of 2026.

There is also one last aspect that does not favor a generational change as in the past, and it is related to the form of veterans like Alonso and Hamilton. Alonso will turn 43 next year, but the performance he is providing at Aston Martin is far from that of a driver at the tail end of his career.

Lewis Hamilton will also celebrate his 40th year as a full-time driver for Mercedes in 2025, and it’s unlikely he’ll do it without having the credentials to make a difference. Lewis will face his nineteenth season in Formula 1 in two years, and not everyone is convinced it will be his last.