Two weeks after Max Verstappen’s third victory of the 2024 Formula 1 championship, racing resumes this weekend at the 5.451-kilometre Shanghai International Circuit. Suzuka reiterated Red Bull’s status as the dominant force in this first part of the season. However, for three years now, the Japanese circuit has been the perfect place and the ideal hunting ground for the world champions, emphasizing their superiority. In China, Scuderia Ferrari will attempt to close the gap and apply pressure in an event where the importance of the result in the qualifying session will be among the lowest of the year given the track characteristics and layout. Instead, the keys will lie in race strategies and interpreting a semi-new track for the teams, who do not have a lot of information and data on the track surface and are especially lacking prior information for setting up ground-effect cars.
The Shanghai circuit stands out for its abundance of wide-radius corners at medium-high speeds and particularly long duration, where aerodynamic downforce and mid-corner stability are crucial. A highlight is the initial so-called ‘corkscrew,’ where drivers maneuver the wheel for several seconds, tightening the trajectory as the car loses speed, a test of balance and modulation of braking. This section represents the best test of yaw for the cars, offering teams the opportunity to map their behavior at different steering angles and slip angles, as well as at various speeds, providing invaluable data for understanding the car.
The Chinese track also features violent braking zones, earning a rating of 3 out of 5 for braking severity estimated by Brembo, the leading supplier of braking systems in 2024. The most demanding braking zone is at the end of the long back straight, a section that has to be tackled entirely with the steering wheel straight and with a peak deceleration of 4.7 g, compared to Suzuka’s 4.3 g. So far, Red Bull has not been as influential under braking as direct competitors, but it can leverage turns 3, 6, 11, and 14 to capitalize on the RB20’s great agility in terms of slow corners. Overall, the Shanghai circuit offers a balanced mix of slow corner exits and fast turns, stressing the Pirelli tires with both longitudinal and lateral forces.
The Chinese Grand Prix coincides with the first Sprint event of the 2024 Formula 1 championship, featuring two qualifying sessions. For Ferrari, this represents a double opportunity to fine-tune performance on the flying lap, identified as one of the main areas to work on in Maranello after the feedback collected in the first four rounds of the season. Attention is particularly focused on tire preparation and temperature management throughout the lap. Arriving at the first corner with the tires ready is extremely crucial in Shanghai, given the long sequence of the initial ‘corkscrew,’ where a significant portion of the lap is at stake.
For the top teams, immediate qualification in Q1 and Q2 without resorting to a second set of new tires is equally important in order to avoid compromising Q3. Moreover, in China, each driver will only have 12 sets of tires available, as compared to the 13 sets for other weekends where the Sprint format is not scheduled. However, this time the importance of the qualifying result takes a back seat on a track where overtaking is particularly easy. This is evidenced by the 2016 Chinese Grand prix edition, which still holds the record for overtakes in a dry race, a staggering 161 successfully completed overtaking moves.
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The possibilities for attempting passes open the doors to an exciting race, with the awareness that various strategies can be employed without particular concern about losing position. As always, the key to an effective strategy is knowledge and the way in which the tires are used. In China, Pirelli brings the intermediate compounds from its range, namely C2, C3, and C4, also imposing the highest static inflation pressures for the front, up to 26 psi.
The problem is that after five years of absence, teams do not have updated information on the characteristics of the track surface, which are crucial for tire degradation and wear. The level of roughness and grip of the track surface are especially unknown, although it is estimated that it should remain low. Furthermore, it is unclear whether the limiting factor in the race will be the usual thermal degradation or graining, in the management of which Scuderia Ferrari has appeared more effective than their rivals Red Bull.
In the official Ferrari preview of the next round, Frederic Vasseur reflects that the asphalt presents a significant uncertainty, given the familiarity with the circuit layout but the lack of knowledge about the bumps. Additionally, he notes that the temperatures are expected to be cooler, and the roughness of the asphalt remains unknown, which are crucial factors for the weekend. He further mentions that the Sprint format complicates the teams’ work, as there’s only one free practice session, making it impossible to test all three tire compounds. In light of the tire allocation and the format in China, teams will need to decide which compounds to try on Friday, making weekend preparation critical, according to the Ferrari Team Principal.
Another uncertainty is related to the depressions and irregularities of the track surface, on a circuit built on marshy and therefore yielding ground. Considering the bumps of the Chinese track, it will be crucial not only to adjust the suspension setup in search of pure performance but above all to regulate the ride height and manage the wear of the underfloor. With ground-effect Formula 1 cars, teams want to run as close to the ground as possible to extract maximum aerodynamic performance, but they must be careful not to exceed 1 millimeter of plank wear under the floor, to avoid disqualification.
The single practice session does not help in this regard, as the available time is reduced to perform race pace simulations and evaluate both tire and floor wear. Already in Austin, another track with a lot of bumps where the Sprint was held last year, Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton were disqualified on Sunday for excessive underfloor wear.
On the other hand, at the Shanghai circuit, the updated Sprint format makes its debut, allowing teams to adjust the setup between the short race and Saturday’s qualifying session. The qualifying and Sprint race sessions will therefore be a kind of continuation of free practice, allowing teams to take more risks with the setup and potentially revert if there’s an error. Finding a good setup right from the start will still be important, as any subsequent adjustments would be made “blindly,” without the opportunity to try them out on track first. Another variable that instills confidence in Ferrari, which has repeatedly demonstrated the quality of its preparation, showing good setup right from the first session of the weekend.
