The dominance of Max Verstappen and Red Bull continued in the fifth round of the 2024 Formula 1 championship, the Chinese Grand Prix, it was more evident than ever: a 13-second lead over the second position in just 26 laps of action after the Safety Car restart at the 5.451-kilometre Shanghai International Circuit. Over the scheduled 56 laps, this would translate to almost thirty seconds ahead of the nearest pursuer, which last weekend surprisingly was Lando Norris, who had a fantastic race and was also helped by the Safety Car to overtake a once again struggling Sergio Perez and secure second place. McLaren expected a bigger gap from Red Bull on a track that doesn’t suit the characteristics of the MCL38, but changes to the setup between Saturday’s Sprint race and the main event on Sunday, along with favorable conditions, helped the papaya car come alive and maintain a gap consistent with what was seen in the previous Grands Prix.
What never came alive was the Ferrari SF-24 single-seater, initially struggling in the Qualifying session and then in the race when a significant improvement was expected from Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz starting from the third and fourth rows; the first sequence of corners was a constant thorn in their side throughout the Shanghai weekend, indicating an ill-suited setup and untapped potential that hovered around half a second. In the upcoming round of the 2024 Formula 1 campaign, the Miami Grand Prix, when McLaren and Mercedes bring updates, a response is expected especially from the SF-24 single-seater of Maranello, which was too inconsistent (and different) to be true as confirmed by the telemetry data analysis.
If until December there was talk of a Ferrari car that was too aggressive on the Pirelli tires, despite the progress made during the last Formula 1 season, this year the problem has flipped, and in several instances, it has punished the Maranello team equally: a poor performance in the Qualifying session and difficulty in warming up the tires at the start of the stint led to slow lap times for Carlos Sainz and Charles Leclerc, which then persisted throughout the tire life, as was the case in Charles Leclerc’s first stint on the C3 tire. Compared to Red Bull, potentially 5 tenths per lap were lost in just the first stint of the Chinese Grand Prix and in total, two tenths more than usual were left on the table due to suboptimal management of the Pirelli tires: similar issue, even in terms of timing, as seen at the Jeddah circuit in Saudi Arabia where Ferrari, also due to some setup choices, had preferred to take better care of the tires, and at the Shanghai International Circuit, it was more evident due to the more abrasive track surface that did not allow for a faster last part of the stint. The settings studied by the Maranello engineers also showed other shortcomings, and the corrections made on Saturday afternoon after the Sprint race went in the wrong direction, unlike rivals Red Bull and McLaren, which got it right and were therefore able to pull away.
As happened during Saturday’s qualifying session, even in the race, more than half of the gap to rivals Red Bull came from the first section of the Shanghai track, an average of five tenths lost in the 56 laps of Sunday’s race in seven hundred meters of track, where Max Verstappen created a gap compared to McLaren and Ferrari throughout the Chinese weekend. An unrecognizable SF-24 car also due to losses in the slower sections of the track of eight tenths per lap, a sign of a lack of grip offered by the tires even once ‘warmed up’. The setup changes worsened the situation, doubling the loss in the first three corners between the Sprint Race and the main race. Additionally, Carlos Sainz was missing during the Chinese GP weekend after two positive performances in Australia and Japan: the Spaniard focused a lot on Qualifying, beating his Maranello teammate on Friday and coming just behind on Saturday, but in the race, Carlos Sainz’s pace was lacking compared to Charles Leclerc, with a deficit of as much as three tenths per lap.
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Red Bull had an advantage of half a second over the competition, the largest margin seen so far in the 2024 Formula 1 campaign: at the core of this supremacy lies excellent work on the setup, both before the weekend and after the Sprint Race, and of course, an extraordinary performance by Max Verstappen. The Dutchman was perfectly in tuning the car, aided by Ferrari’s significant absence, but he also made a significant difference compared to his teammate, who, under less ‘optimal’ conditions than the previous races, lagged behind by almost six-tenths per lap. The emblem of Red Bull’s dominance also comes from the four perfect pit stops, with an average of 2.03 seconds per pit stop in the race, which is unbeatable for everyone else; it’s worth noting that the best pit stop after Red Bull this season is 2.18 seconds! Compared to the Suzuka circuit, there was a step forward in terms of performance, and Miami will confirm whether it was Red Bull progressing due to recent updates or Scuderia Ferrari regressing in the Chinese Grand Prix.
McLaren also had a stellar weekend with Lando Norris, who recovered perfectly after a significant mistake in the first lap of the Sprint Race to control the 56 laps of the Chinese GP flawlessly. On the other hand, his teammate Oscar Piastri suffered significantly, confirming difficulties in managing the tires in various situations, lagging behind by seven-tenths per lap before the diffuser damage at the restart. McLaren did an excellent job in terms of setup, starting the weekend with a comfortable Pole Position by Lando Norris on a wet track on Friday and making good progress midway through the weekend. The half-second gap from Red Bull is a good result on a very challenging track, an increase from the four-tenths in Suzuka indicating that Woking didn’t ‘overperform’ compared to other weekends. However, from a result perspective, the drivers didn’t maximize everything in the two races. Miami is expected to see the first significant updates of the season to try to put pressure on Ferrari on another track that on paper should not be ideal for the MCL38 and also attempt to begin to consistently close the gap to Red Bull, as explained by F1 expert Andrea Vergani for formu1a.uno.
Further back, the performances of Aston Martin and Mercedes in the Chinese Grand Prix confirmed and solidified their status as the fourth and fifth forces, several tenths behind the duo formed by Ferrari and McLaren. The shortcomings of both cars were evident last weekend in China; Aston Martin suffered immense tire degradation on the softer compound at the start of the Grand Prix – with losses of over two tenths per lap due to suboptimal tire management. Still, the updates introduced in the Japanese Grand Prix seem to have boosted Fernando Alonso’s performance, while Lance Stroll continues to struggle to extract performance from his Aston Martin car. Mercedes showed a similar pace to Aston Martin, and George Russell finished the race ahead of Fernando Alonso despite the Spaniard’s start from third position. However, the performance of the W15 is among the worst of any Mercedes in the hybrid era: the gap from Max Verstappen’s Red Bull even reached 1.3 seconds per lap, in a Formula 1 season that is becoming increasingly challenging for the men from Brackley after the claims made in February.
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