Analysis of winter testing race simulations – AMuS. Analysis of winter testing race simulations by AMuS.

Analysis of winter testing race simulations made by Auto Motor and Sport’s Michael Schmidt:

Ferrari had the fastest car in the winter tests, in one lap and in the long run. But how good is Ferrari really? What is Mercedes lacking? And why are Renault and Haas right at the front in the longrun standings?

In the analysis of the fastest lap times after 8 days of winter testing in Barcelona, Ferrari is 0.003s ahead of Mercedes. But somehow the feeling tells us: Ferrari is more than just 0.003s faster. Because Sebastian Vettel and Charles Leclerc did their laps so much easier than the Mercedes drivers. Lewis Hamilton needed a few attempts on the last day of testing until he was near Vettel. Usually the race simulations show a better picture. But this year of all years, they have a bigger source of mistakes than before.

Mainly because of the bigger tank. In Barcelona you can also make laps with a starting weight of 100 kilograms. A few times lift and coast, and you easily manage the 66 laps. But one can also fill the tank with 120 kilograms and always drive with full power (give everything). Or not.

The motor programs are the second big variable. At the start of the race there’s a seven tenth uncertainty factor in it or not, depending on how much fuel was in the tank. The teams therefore make best case and worst case calculations. They can use GPS to find out better who turns on the engine when and who does not. The data can also be used to determine who could have had how much fuel in the tank. Those who are disproportionately fast in the meantime of the last sector are more likely to drive with less fuel on board. In the last sector (eight corners), the weight plays a greater role than in S1 and S2.

Of course, we don’t have such options. Nevertheless, we picked out at least one longrun from each team and split it into its individual stints, with the corresponding tyres. We noted in our chart whether the driver continued driving immediately after the tyre change or disappeared in the garage, or whether the race simulation was interrupted by a red flag or a defect. You will also receive the day when the longrun took place. To create an overall ranking we took a cut from all laps and extrapolated it to the race distance of 66 laps. We excluded the IN and OUT laps. It would have been unfair to have them. Some took their time during the pit stop, others didn’t.

Charles Leclerc in front of Ricciardo and Bottas: the winner of the virtual Barcelona Grand Prix was Charles Leclerc. The new Ferrari driver drove 58 laps in three stints and finished just 13 seconds ahead of Daniel Ricciardo in the Renault and 19.3 seconds ahead of Valtteri Bottas in the Mercedes. You heard right. A Renault in 2nd place. But certainly here start the question marks. Charles drove C2 tyres in all three stints. That would not be allowed in a Grand Prix. In the first stint on the softer C3 tyres, Bottas alone loses almost 9 seconds to the Ferrari driver. Charles Leclerc, on the other hand, tackles the last run much too fast and pays for the last five laps with collapsing tyres. “He would never do that in a real race,” say the Mercedes engineers.

While Charles Leclerc and Bottas only changed the tyres during the pit stops, Ricciardo’s Renault disappeared completely in the garage both times. Theoretically, a lot can happen. For example a change of the setup. Refuelling would be an option if you want to disguise something. In theory, Renault could have driven all three stints with less fuel and always filled up with fuel in between. But with that you only cheat on yourself and don’t learn anything about the tyres. Regardless the Mercedes strategists were impressed by Ricciardo’s 47-lap drive.

Red Bull remains a mystery: Sebastian Vettel and Lewis Hamilton are within four tenths, but both are difficult to compare. Seb’s race simulation failed just after the second pit stop after 34 laps due to an electrical defect. And Hamilton drove a four-stop race on day 6 with the mixtures C3, C2, C1, C3 and C2. Sebastian did a similar exercise in the first week, but this longrun is not representative enough. In the case of Red Bull, the racing simulation does not provide any further clarification either. We admit that we can’t really figure out Red Bull. Max Verstappen’s body language shows confidence, and the Dutchman is not really a good actor who can cover up frustration. On the other hand, the longrun of the five-time GP winner on day six was no revelation. Verstappen, like Bottas, chose the C3 tyres at the start. The Dutchman was two tenths faster than Bottas but also three tenths slower than Charles Leclerc. In the second stint he lost an average of 0.2 seconds on the Mercedes and 0.7 seconds on the Ferrari on the C2 tyre. The third stint ended after three laps in the 1.21 lap times with a slip and a gearbox damage.

Behind the Red Bull there is a car that could be interesting. If the imaginary Grand Prix had only taken place on C2 tyres, Ferrari and Mercedes would had to prepare themselves against Haas. Kevin Magnussen was two tenths slower than Charles and three tenths faster than Bottas in the comparison of the second stint. Magnussen’s last stint was amazing: Magnussen drove 25 laps with an average of 1:21.501s. A starting lap of 1.20.805 minutes was followed by 24 laps between 1.21.114 and 1.21.931 minutes. A prime example of consistency. The weak first run on C3-tyres was the bad result for Haas. “We still have a problem with the soft tyre compounds. We are working on it,” promises team boss Guenther Steiner. They need to. In Melbourne it’s probably mainly C3 and C4 tyres that will be used.

Alfa Romeo could not keep up with Haas and Renault in the longruns. Toro Rosso is difficult to estimate. Daniil Kvyat did a race simulation in the first week, which was even behind McLaren. On a second attempt on day 6, the Russian was disproportionately fast. With a race time of 1:30.34,137 hours, he would have finished second. But Kvyat stopped the race after 36 laps shortly before the second pit stop. Until then he had been on C3 and C1 tyres. The truth is probably somewhere in the middle. The Toro Rosso is not as slow as it presented itself in the first week of the longrun, and it is not the second fastest car in the field either.

Williams lapped twice: the soft Pirelli compounds could be a problem this year, with the track determining what soft tyre will be used. In Barcelona the C3 tyres were already at their limits in terms of durability. The tests have shown that the Red Bull is still the most careful with the soft tyres, the Mercedes this year seems a bit better than the Ferrari in this respect. It looks as if Ferrari team boss Mattia Binotto will continue his aggressive policy. The main thing is to have a fast car with which you can escape at the beginning of the race. Then you only have to defend your lead.

From Racing Point it can be said that the pink car looks better in the longrun than in the fast laps. Sergio Perez would have finished 6 seconds behind Kimi Raikkonen. McLaren improved in the second week but is still 20 seconds behind Alfa Romeo. It looks bitterly bad for Williams. George Russell’s longrun was at a snail’s pace. In a real race Russell would have been overtaken twice, more than four minutes behind Charles Leclerc.