Red Bull wins and convinces. Max Verstappen dispels doubts arising from the practice sessions in Australia, a race in which he never truly contested, and returned to dominating the race weekend, this time at the 5.807-kilometre Suzuka International Racing Course in the Japanese Grand Prix and therefore overcame Saturday’s concerns about tire management. The stopwatch shows a twenty-second lead over Scuderia Ferrari, a team that is increasingly solid and which is feeling that just fighting for third place on the podium is no longer enough. Updates will be crucial for the upcoming races and the ones introduced by the world champion team at the Suzuka circuit have clearly provided positive feedback for the Austrian side.
Red Bull, a successful bet
It might be said that doubts about Red Bull’s race pace did not have a solid foundation and were in fact caused by the fact that the RB20 cars were carrying a heavier fuel load than the competition during the free practice sessions. Yet, the concerns about tire management were concrete, confirmed by both the statements of the drivers and those of Helmut Marko, outlining a potentially even more critical situation on Sunday, with the track 10°C warmer. Red Bull had to bet on a last-minute setup change, almost blindly heading into the qualifying session and the race. The final result rewards the team’s bet, aware nonetheless of taking a risk and emphasizing the importance for opponents to apply pressure.
In the race, Max Verstappen delivers excellent stints, especially the initial one, where the advantage over Lando Norris’s McLaren exceeds 6 tenths per lap, whereas six months ago it was less than half a second. The Suzuka circuit strengthens the impression of a particularly competitive Red Bull in the early stages of the race, the most aggressive for tires, but also where the car moves differently on the track, weighed down by fuel. The Japanese Grand Prix confirms how the new RB20 is superior to the previous one not so much for aerodynamic load and absolute performance, but for consistency of performance in a wide range of conditions.
The checkered flag certifies an intact advantage over the second force, now Ferrari and no longer McLaren. However, it’s worth considering that in 2023, Lando Norris, second at the finish in the Japanese Grand Prix, raced almost entirely in free air. This year, however, Ferrari and McLaren disturbed each other, maneuvering through the traffic represented by the two Mercedes cars, Fernando Alonso and Charles Leclerc and optimizing the strategy for track positions rather than the final time. In this, Red Bull reaps the rewards of aggressiveness in the qualifying session, monopolizing the front row and defending it in both starts, another phase in which the world champions remain flawless.
Ferrari’s Doubt
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The red cars once again show a good race pace, regretting their lackluster qualifying performance. However, it remains unlikely that Ferrari could have fought for victory at the Suzuka circuit by starting behind the Red Bull cars. With equal tires and in free track conditions, in the second half of the central stint, Carlos Sainz is between 3 and 4 tenths slower than Max Verstappen. The one-two finish at the Albert park circuit in Australia had rightly raised very high expectations, which, however, risk overshadowing the solid work done so far by the Maranello team. On one of the most technical circuits of the Formula 1 calendar, the SF-24 proves to be gentle on tires, well-balanced, and without particular flaws. The final gap is halved compared to six months ago, even though it was a race heavily conditioned by the battles on the track.
The consistency of the SF-24 car ensures greater strategic flexibility. On two occasions, the Maranello team’s pitwall tried to delay Carlos Sainz’s pit stop and then seek an overtaking opportunity on the track, something which was unthinkable with the 2023 Ferrari F1 car, which would break apart and overheat the tires as soon as it entered the wake of another car. The Italian side is also the only one to make the single-stop strategy work with Charles Leclerc, very good at reading the evolution of the track, which cooled down by 10° during the race. Carlos Sainz’s admission at the end of the Japanese Grand Prix, explaining that he also considered a single pit stop, attests to the docility of the SF-24 on tires but raises another doubt. In a race where the double stop was generally the faster strategy, one can’t help but wonder if the Spaniard still had tire to exploit, indicating an approach to the weekend that was overly conservative.
A Matter of Balance
Much has been said about Ferrari’s lesser competitiveness in the qualifying session compared to the race. However, it’s a much broader aspect that concerns the compromise between tire management and exploitation, between consistency of pace and absolute times, not only on Saturdays but also in the race. It’s a balance in which Red Bull at Suzuka proves superior, with the doubt whether, with a different setup, the Prancing Horse could express an even better pace. The balance between the two aspects is not something immutable and solely linked to the car’s design but something that can be intervened upon. Immediately in Maranello, the tire preparation lap in qualifying will be reviewed, also considering different suspension adjustments for a better race pace.
Progress will obviously depend on the development of the SF-24 car, with the first updates for the Prancing Horse arriving between Miami and Imola. Meanwhile, Red Bull moves forward, introducing an important package of innovations for this weekend in Japan, a month ahead of their rivals. In this, the world champions still benefit from the time invested in 2023, with the development of the RB19 interrupted months earlier given their huge performance advantage, therefore being able to anticipate both the basic configuration of the RB20 and the first updates.
Distant Opponents
At the Suzuka circuit, Ferrari is one of the very few teams to significantly approach Red Bull, establishing itself as one of the teams that have worked best in recent months. In Japan, McLaren moves from being the second to the third force, with Lando Norris crossing the finish line with ten more seconds behind as compared to last year, conditioned, however, by time lost in the battle with the Ferrari cars. After the excellent graining management seen at the Albert park circuit in Australia, the Woking car appears reasonably good even when tire degradation is the limiting factor. Lando Norris’ times in the final stint with an almost empty tank are particularly competitive, identical to those of Charles Leclerc with the same tire. Now, less friendly tracks are coming for McLaren, but also the long-awaited updates promised by team principal Andrea Stella.
Finishing sixth is Fernando Alonso, who once again maximizes the points haul. At Suzuka, Aston Martin introduces a wide range of innovations that for the moment do not seem to alter the balance of the car, as happened in 2023. The Silverstone team shaves off 30 seconds from the final gap to Max Verstappen, who nonetheless breaks the 40-second barrier. Mercedes still lags behind, forced to try an alternative strategy to compensate for the lack of pace. Suzuka was one of the worst tracks for the W15, but the team can take comfort in the positive feedback from the drivers, who confirmed some timid signs of improvement.
Closing the points zone is the Racing Bulls team, propelled by the excellent Yuki Tsunoda and the first significant updates to the floor. Racing Bulls can count on the best car in the second half of the grid, with Haas as its first challenger. The VF-24 leaves behind last year’s advantages of a better pace in terms of flying laps to make way for a drivable, gentle-on-tires, and consistent car, qualities that it not surprisingly shares with Ferrari.
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