2024 F1 Australian GP analysis and review: best Ferrari since 2022, but Red Bull remains team to beat

What stands out from the race at the Albert Park circuit is Max Verstappen’s absence, but the technical issues suffered by the world champion should not detract from Scuderia Ferrari’s best weekend since the start of the 2024 Formula 1 season. The Prancing Horse confirms the huge progress made over the last six months, continuing to do so as the team becomes more familiar with the new car. In Japan, Max Verstappen is unfortunately expected to reassert the hierarchy aboard an RB20 that remains the car to beat, but its superiority may be questioned throughout the year. For now let’s just enjoy the big celebrations at Ferrari in the Albert Park paddock following their first one-two in over two years and take a look at how the Maranello team was able to achieve this remarkable result.

The Race
In Melbourne, the decisive moment comes in the very first laps when Max Verstappen’s Red Bull suffers from brake issues, effectively pulling the “handbrake” on the RB20. The world champion, hampered in his driving, first makes a mistake and is overtaken by Carlos Sainz. On lap 4 it became apparent why as his right rear corner started smoking. Towards the end of the lap the Dutchman had to back off, retiring into the pitlane with a right-rear brake fire. This results in a significant loss of points for the Dutchman because, although it’s realistic that he could return to the front in Japan, it’s no longer certain he can stay there all year.

At that point, Carlos Sainz has the opportunity to control the race, while behind him, Charles Leclerc pays for his qualifying errors, finding himself in the McLaren traffic. To overtake Lando Norris, Ferrari calls the Monegasque into the pits early, a crucial decision also to defend against Oscar Piastri’s undercut. The Prancing Horse succeeds in the pitstop overtake, but then Charles Leclerc finds himself with tires seven laps older than Carlos Sainz’s, with no chance of challenging him. Moreover, the Monegasque faces a five-lap tire life disadvantage compared to Lando Norris, a handicap carried through the second and third race segments, outlining a defensive race in the final stages.

With equal tires, the McLaren car is half a second per lap slower than Carlo Sainz’s Ferrari in the first stint but gains competitiveness as the car lightens. With fresher tires, Lando Norris put pressure on Charles Leclerc in the end, without managing to overtake and nearly clinching the fastest lap. Ahead, Carlos Sainz continues without issues to the chequered flag, framing his victory with a return to the track two weeks post-surgery and positioning himself as one of the most sought-after drivers on the market once his contract with the Maranello team will come to an end.

The Missed Challenge
The Australian Grand Prix shows the best Ferrari car since the start of the season and probably since 2022, when Charles Leclerc’s illusory victory earned the F1-75 the nickname “beast.” For fans, it’s too soon to place the same championship hopes on the SF-24 as they did then, although the 2024 and 2022 Ferrari cars share similar qualities, both in terms of strengths and on-track strategy. The Maranello team’s car returns to having high-speed cornering as one of its greatest strengths, also opting for a higher downforce level than Red Bull for the second consecutive race, as often happened in 2022.

After the race, the question remains whether this Ferrari and Carlos Sainz could have competed on equal terms with Max Verstappen. The only benchmark with Red Bull is the final stints comparison between Sergio Perez and Charles Leclerc with equal tires, when the Monegasque was half a second per lap faster in clean air. However, Sergio Perez lacked motivation at that point, not to mention Max Verstappen’s ability to always extract something more from the RB20 single-seater.

In a direct challenge, certainly, the Prancing Horse would have had a better chance if it had started in front, missing a pole position that seemed within reach. The sharpness in qualifying, long appreciated in 2023, is now the area where Ferrari can improve the most, not just in terms of the car, but also execution. Beyond Max Verstappen’s merits, the excellent timing of the Red Bull pit wall, which always sends the cars onto the track free from traffic, preparing the tires optimally and even exploiting the slipstream on a couple of occasions, made the difference in the first three qualifying sessions of the 2024 Formula 1 season.

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Eyes on the Championship
The second question for Ferrari fans is whether the Maranello team has the potential to challenge the world champions. Melbourne appears as a misstep for Red Bull in terms of weekend preparation, on a track they already struggled to interpret in 2022. At Albert Park, moreover, the limiting factor in the race is not thermal tire degradation but graining, surface tearing, a particular wear mechanism in which Ferrari had already shown positive feedback in last November’s Las Vegas Grand Prix.

Despite all anomalies that might explain the temporary role reversal between Ferrari and Red Bull, it’s essential to remember that the championship is in a phase of rapid evolution of on track values. Teams are increasingly understanding and exploiting their cars, whilewaiting for official development to take off. The absence of significant updates in the first month of the season suggests important upgrade packages are in the works at the factories, which will dictate the evolution of hierarchies till the end of the year.

This is why the points lost by Red Bull, which must capitalize on its current superiority, are significant. Although on an upward trend, Ferrari still lacks something before being able to think about seriously challenging for the drivers’ championship, but the constructors’ championship appears within reach. While further steps forward are needed to consistently challenge Max Verstappen, nibbling points off Sergio Perez is a realistic target, especially if the Mexican struggles to break free from the midfield.

McLaren Shines
Staying on the topic of challengers, an excellent McLaren showcased itself in Melbourne, with Lando Norris just 6 seconds behind Carlos Sainz before the final interruption. Like Jeddah, Albert Park is a friendly track for the MCL38, but Suzuka, filled with high-speed corners, will be even more so. In Woking, they are also expecting updates, which team principal Andrea Stella hints will change the appearance of the car, suggesting modifications to the body and the floor.

Aston Martin and Mercedes are still too far behind at the moment, recognizing they cannot compete on equal terms with their rivals, they play the card of alternative strategies. Fernando Alonso opts for starting on hard tires instead of mediums, while George Russell extends the middle stint of the race to attack at the end with fresh tires. The two meet in the last laps, in a duel that sees the British driver crashing into the wall. It’s a double retirement for Mercedes, after Lewis Hamilton’s technical problem, a conclusion in line with the struggles of the Melbourne weekend. The Silver Arrows suffer from a too narrow operating window and a car that is enigmatic to understand, outlining a scenario very similar to what Ferrari faced in 2023.

Great satisfaction for Yuki Tsunoda, who secures the first championship points for Racing Bulls, currently the best car in the second half of the field. Haas scores points for the second weekend in a row and is far from being the last force in the field as team principal Komatsu had predicted before the start of the season. However, the progress in race pace will need to be evaluated on tracks that are more demanding for tire degradation, a test that awaits Ferrari as well.