2023 Spanish GP preview: Ferrari, Red Bull and Aston Martin to bring updates in Barcelona

After the weekend in Monaco, the sport arrives in Barcelona, a stage that usually took place before the event in the Principality. Compared to last year’s edition, the hierarchies on the track have changed, with Ferrari dominating qualifying and the race with Charles Leclerc 12 months ago before seeing the F1-75 slow down on the straight leading to the third sector. The third sector, already modified in 2021, will be altered again: the slow chicane has been removed in favor of a faster corner. Faster lap times can therefore be expected, and perhaps greater ease in overtaking on the main straight.

Red Bull arrives as the favorite, and the news is that there will be further updates on the RB19, as well as the AMR23 and SF-23. Mercedes has already introduced its package in Monaco and has been able to gather some data. This weekend will be important to evaluate the effect of the various update packages on a circuit that is as technical on Saturdays as it is demanding on Sundays: tire wear will need to be limited during the race, but temperatures should not be excessively high.

Spanish Grand Prix: With the modification of the third sector, the circuit now has only two slow corners.

The removal of the last chicane involves modifying corner 13, which was taken at around 135 km/h in Qualifying in 2022. According to Frederic Vasseur, it will be difficult to take the penultimate (and final) corner without lifting off the accelerator. Most of the corners will be taken above 130 km/h on Saturday, including Campsa (corner 9), which was approached at approximately 250 km/h last year. This suggests an undisputed dominance of the RB19: the Milton Keynes car has no rivals in this type of corner, and even the well-balanced AMR23 struggles to keep up.

Scuderia Ferrari will have to rely on its own updates if it wants to leave Montmeló with a good result. The SF23 is the weakest car among the top four teams in medium/high-speed corners where the lack of downforce is felt.

After several races at a good level, we can expect a slight step back from Alpine: the A523 also has a similar issue to the Ferrari single-seater, struggling to generate downforce at high speeds, and it could pay the price in the same way. However, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Ocon and Gasly in the top ten on Saturday and Sunday. McLaren performed well in Monaco, but in Barcelona, they will once again lose precious tenths on the straights due to excessive drag on the MCL60, just like AlphaTauri, which has to deal with the least efficient car on the grid in the early stages of the season but can rely on a completely new floor.

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On paper, the Ferrari-powered teams should be more competitive: Alfa Romeo introduced a significant package in Monaco but failed to score points (Valtteri Bottas finished eleventh), and Haas struggled a lot in Monte Carlo due to the bumpy track, a problem that should ease for the Spanish Grand Prix, as explained by F1 expert Andrea Vergani for formu1a.uno.

Pirelli has chosen to bring the harder tire compounds for the race: last year, Max Verstappen’s winning strategy was a three-stop race, with two stints on the C3 compound and two stints on the C2 compound. The two-stop strategy seemed possible, and after the first-lap collision, Lewis Hamilton made a comeback to fifth place. The C1 compound offered too little grip, and only Kevin Magnussen, second to last at the finish, tried them without success. Red Bull remains the favorite in any condition, but we have seen how Max Verstappen and Sergio Perez can make the harder compounds work.

Fernando Alonso, with his AMR23, also has no issues in this regard, while Mercedes and especially Ferrari struggle more. It is highly likely that it won’t be a good weekend for the Maranello team, which will have to rely on the new parts they will introduce.

The forecast indicates relatively low temperatures for most of the weekend, slightly above 20°C, with a significant chance of rain. However, most of the sessions will not be held under the typical Spanish heat that often puts pressure on tires and power units, as happened in 2022. In particular, rain could also hit the Catalunya circuit on Sunday, and we may see the second consecutive race in wet conditions.

Spanish Grand Prix, updates: Ferrari introduces a significant package, RB19 will also have new parts
Red Bull has planned further updates after the ones introduced in Azerbaijan, the Austrian team will “try something new,” according to Helmut Marko. Ferrari hopes to make a step forward with their first major package of updates, primarily involving the bodywork: for several Grands Prix now, Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz have been missing several tenths of performance compared to Mercedes and, above all, Aston Martin. The Germans have introduced updates to the front suspension, floor, and side pods in Monaco, but we will discover more about their potential here in Barcelona on a more typical track. The Silverstone team brought adaptations to the extremely slow layout of the Principality to Monte Carlo, while between Spain and Canada, the first significant updates will arrive.

In the midfield, most teams introduced the updates initially planned for Imola in Monaco. However, due to the uniqueness of the circuit, we didn’t necessarily see the full potential of the updated cars. As always, the Spanish Grand Prix weekend will be among the most important of the season to understand the strengths and weaknesses of each car. The teams will have to decide whether to adopt a high-downforce setup or a slightly less resistant one to gain time on the straights and be able to overtake and defend better on Sundays.