2023 Austrian GP - possible race strategies: uncertain weather and Charles Leclerc's unknown

After experiencing two intense qualifying sessions and a Sprint race, we have reached the final act of the Austrian weekend. Following a completely dry Friday and a Saturday contested under variable weather conditions, Sunday may still have to contend with rain. Currently, the forecast predicts a mix of clear skies and clouds throughout the day, with a possibility of thunderstorms near the race. It seems that rain is following Formula 1 this year. The risk of rain is currently around 50%, so caution will be required.

Turning to strategy, it will be challenging for the teams to determine the right tactics to sustain the 71 laps of the Austrian Grand Prix today at the 4.318-kilometre Red Bull Ring in Spielberg. The Sprint format did not allow the teams to gather much data on tire performance in race conditions. The short race on Saturday was supposed to provide initial insights, but with rain disrupting their plans, it was impossible for them to get an accurate idea of the slick tire’s durability. Max Verstappen, Sergio Perez, Carlos Sainz, Lance Stroll, and Fernando Alonso completed yesterday’s sprint race using a single set of intermediate tires, the ones they started with on the grid.

Pirelli’s recommendations – Austrian GP – 71 laps
Teams will have to rely on the estimations provided by Pirelli, with input from its motorsport director, Mario Isola, who suggests a two-stop strategy: “With only one free practice session available, there isn’t much data to produce a detailed analysis of tire behavior over a long distance. However, we believe that the Soft tire won’t be used much in the race, so the choice comes down to the Medium and Hard compounds.” – the Italian pointed out.

“On paper, the fastest strategy seems to be a two-stop plan: start on the Medium, switch to the Hard compound for the middle stint, and then return to the Medium for the final stint. Those who have two sets of C3 tires could opt for another stint with the harder compound. A one-stop strategy (Medium to Hard) could also be competitive, but looking at how last year’s race unfolded, it is a less appealing option compared to two pit stops,” concluded Mario Isola, as reported in the latest statement released by Pirelli.

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Three pit stops are not ruled out
Let’s focus on Mario Isola’s last words. What happened last year? The tires exhibited very high degradation during the race, with the Medium (C4) – Hard (C3) – Hard (C3) strategy being the most commonly used in 2022. Charles Leclerc even won the race by making three pit stops: Medium-Hard-Hard-Medium. This strategy was also adopted by Max Verstappen, who finished second, just 1.5 seconds behind the Ferrari driver.

Should we expect something similar this year as well? Probably yes. The rain that fell yesterday did not allow the track to rubber in properly, so it remains quite green for today’s Austrian Grand Prix. If we were to have a completely dry race, we can’t rule out the possibility of a three-stop strategy. At Spielberg, it’s relatively easy to overtake if there’s a significant performance difference due to the use of new tires, so if the degradation is pronounced, drivers will not hesitate to go to the pits.

Max Verstappen is still the clear favorite, while the Ferrari SF-23 cars, starting from second and third positions today (with Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz respectively), will need to put on a great performance to protect the podium from attacks by Mercedes, Aston Martin, and Sergio Perez, although in the Mexican’s case, he will have to make a comeback from 15th position. George Russell also starts quite far back in P11, but both George and Checo showed good pace during yesterday’s Sprint race, so with the right strategy calls, they could pose a significant challenge to the Ferraris. Especially if Charles Leclerc continues to struggle.

Clouds hanging over the Monegasque
Charles Leclerc had a lot of difficulty during the Sprint race, especially in bringing and maintaining the front axle tires in the correct temperature window. If the temperatures remain relatively cool, it could be particularly challenging for him to protect his second position. We hope for sunshine and warmth at Ferrari’s home. Unfortunately, with the frozen setups since Friday, there isn’t much that can be done… On the other hand, Carlos Sainz seems to have adapted quite well to these conditions so there is no reason why he can’t repeat his performance today.

The weather conditions will be different from yesterday. However, with the constant threat of rain for the race, the scenarios could change very quickly during the Austrian Grand Prix.